In yesterday's first post on this topic, I discussed the three main entities (crime intelligence analysis, decision-makers, and the criminal environment) in Jerry Ratcliffe's 3-i model of Intelligence Led Policing as "systems."
To better understand what I mean by Systems Thinking, read the excerpt on The Systems Thinking Approach from www.thinking.net:
"The approach of systems thinking is fundamentally different from that of traditional forms of analysis. Traditional analysis focuses on the separating the individual pieces of what is being studied; in fact, the word "analysis" actually comes from the root meaning "to break into constituent parts." Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system—a set of elements that interact to produce behavior—of which it is a part. This means that instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to take into account larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied. This results in sometimes strikingly different conclusions than those generated by traditional forms of analysis, especially when what is being studied is dynamically complex or has a great deal of feedback from other sources, internal or external.
The character of systems thinking makes it extremely effective on the most difficult types of problems to solve: those involving complex issues, those that depend a great deal dependence on the past or on the actions of others, and those stemming from ineffective coordination among those involved." (My bolding - to highlight the fact that policing in general, crime and intelligence analysis specifically, and ILP certainly deal with these very types of things.)
"Examples of areas in which systems thinking has proven its value include:
* Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the "big picture" and not just their part of it
* Recurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix them
* Issues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environment
* Problems whose solutions are not obvious"
The objective of ILP is to make an impact on the criminal environment. Crime intelligence analysis interprets the criminal environment, influences decision-makers, who in turn make decisions that impact on the criminal environment. This is a complex process that should require systems thinking.
For example, one sub-system of the criminal environment is the drug trade. The police decision-maker who seeks to reduce the drug trade in his or her jurisdiction needs to know everything possible about it in order to understand where limited resources can be used to most effectively decrease the activity of that system. The decision-maker, once armed with all the possible knowledge on the drug trade as a system from holistic crime intelligence analysis, can then look for leverage points where the most impact to reduce the trade may be found. Is it targeting certain individuals in a a particular criminal group? Might it be closing off a trade route? Could it involve working with housing courts to reduce absentee landlords renting to people who then operate drug houses? Perhaps it is a combination of mixed strategies.
In systems thinking, the decision-maker must also take into account how his or her activities (in this case, what the police agency does) contribute to the maintenance of current levels and/or increase of drug trade in the jurisdiction. What works and doesn't work to deter the drug trade? Do some of the things we do actually have unintended consequences of facilitating drug trade? Examples of this include silo-ing of information and lack of collaboration within and among agencies tasked with drug interdiction and enforcement.
If we look at the drug trade as a system and look for leverage points to reduce it, we can look at non-policing solutions. If new medications under development prove to decrease drug addicts' desire to use drugs actually are proven to work safely, the global drug trade may eventually dry up. If the craving for drugs can be obliterated by science, the drug problem and its secondary crimes will no longer be a central policing issue.
This is how systems thinking can work.
I will be writing about this topic in more depth in future posts.
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