UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science
Distance Learning Certificate in Crime Analysis 2009 - 2010
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2009
FBI Files: Bonnie and Clyde
The FBI files on Bonnie and Clyde might be interesting to you. They could be used in a training or class exercise to illustrate how to support an investigation with analysis.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence, 2nd edition
The Federation Press is pleased to announce the recent publication of:
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence, 2nd edition edited by Jerry Ratcliffe, published in May 2009.
"This book is designed and structured to be a resource for intelligence practitioners, crime analysts, law enforcement managers and advanced students of policing. It provides a unique insight into the philosophy and practice of leading strategic intelligence thinkers. Every chapter is written by a practitioner or researcher closely involved with the law enforcement strategic intelligence field. Drawn from intelligence agencies around the world, they represent some of the leading specialists in the expanding field of strategic criminal intelligence.
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence 2nd edition expands and updates the first edition in the light of ongoing developments in 21st century law enforcement. With three new chapters and new authors for some previous chapters, this timely update emphasises intelligence products, risk and threat assessments, and the unfolding complications of intelligence sharing."
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence, 2nd edition edited by Jerry Ratcliffe, published in May 2009.
"This book is designed and structured to be a resource for intelligence practitioners, crime analysts, law enforcement managers and advanced students of policing. It provides a unique insight into the philosophy and practice of leading strategic intelligence thinkers. Every chapter is written by a practitioner or researcher closely involved with the law enforcement strategic intelligence field. Drawn from intelligence agencies around the world, they represent some of the leading specialists in the expanding field of strategic criminal intelligence.
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence 2nd edition expands and updates the first edition in the light of ongoing developments in 21st century law enforcement. With three new chapters and new authors for some previous chapters, this timely update emphasises intelligence products, risk and threat assessments, and the unfolding complications of intelligence sharing."
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Intelligence centers' growth concerns civil libertarians
Intelligence centers' growth concerns civil libertarians
This DesMoinesRegister.com article features Russ Porter and the Iowa Intelligence Fusion Center as a model of how to avoid civil rights problems when running a fusion operation.
This DesMoinesRegister.com article features Russ Porter and the Iowa Intelligence Fusion Center as a model of how to avoid civil rights problems when running a fusion operation.
Friday, May 22, 2009
ILP in the News
Two article on targeting prolific offenders:
Weapons cache seized from Lake Hiawatha man's home
Calne shed raid suspect is arrested
Article on addressing a specific chronic crime problem:
Police tackle rogue traders and bogus callers
Weapons cache seized from Lake Hiawatha man's home
Calne shed raid suspect is arrested
Article on addressing a specific chronic crime problem:
Police tackle rogue traders and bogus callers
Data.gov launched on 5-21-09
Data.gov was just launched - right now in its infancy it might not help you much, but it shows promise of being a great asset in the future.
"The purpose of Data.gov is to increase public access to high value, machine readable datasets generated by the Executive Branch of the Federal Government.
As a priority Open Government Initiative for President Obama's administration, Data.gov increases the ability of the public to easily find, download, and use datasets that are generated and held by the Federal Government. Data.gov provides descriptions of the Federal datasets (metadata), information about how to access the datasets, and tools that leverage government datasets. The data catalogs will continue to grow as datasets are added. Federal, Executive Branch data are included in the first version of Data.gov.
Participatory Democracy..."
"...A primary goal of Data.gov is to improve access to Federal data and expand creative use of those data beyond the walls of government by encouraging innovative ideas (e.g., web applications). Data.gov strives to make government more transparent and is committed to creating an unprecedented level of openness in Government. The openness derived from Data.gov will strengthen our Nation's democracy and promote efficiency and effectiveness in Government."
I obtained this "widget" on "swine flu" aka H1N1 flu from the site:
Here is another, relevant "widget" from the site:
Go to the bottom of this blog page to see the The FluView National Flu Activity Map and some FBI "widgets."
"The purpose of Data.gov is to increase public access to high value, machine readable datasets generated by the Executive Branch of the Federal Government.
As a priority Open Government Initiative for President Obama's administration, Data.gov increases the ability of the public to easily find, download, and use datasets that are generated and held by the Federal Government. Data.gov provides descriptions of the Federal datasets (metadata), information about how to access the datasets, and tools that leverage government datasets. The data catalogs will continue to grow as datasets are added. Federal, Executive Branch data are included in the first version of Data.gov.
Participatory Democracy..."
"...A primary goal of Data.gov is to improve access to Federal data and expand creative use of those data beyond the walls of government by encouraging innovative ideas (e.g., web applications). Data.gov strives to make government more transparent and is committed to creating an unprecedented level of openness in Government. The openness derived from Data.gov will strengthen our Nation's democracy and promote efficiency and effectiveness in Government."
I obtained this "widget" on "swine flu" aka H1N1 flu from the site:
Here is another, relevant "widget" from the site:
Go to the bottom of this blog page to see the The FluView National Flu Activity Map and some FBI "widgets."
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Failure to link databases may have weakened intelligence
Failure to link databases may have weakened intelligence
Hardly surprising to most of us. Just linking databases won't solve the problem. Even with automated searches, someone has to interpret the meaning in the data. Automated analysis cannot replace insightful, perceptive and creative intelligence analysts.
Hardly surprising to most of us. Just linking databases won't solve the problem. Even with automated searches, someone has to interpret the meaning in the data. Automated analysis cannot replace insightful, perceptive and creative intelligence analysts.
The Prescription Drug Dilemma
The Prescription Drug Dilemma: Officers say crack and pill abuse in West Virginia has reached 'almost an epidemic stage.'
This article ties in with my post earlier today on systems thinking and intelligence led policing. I seriously doubt the medical researchers who invented Loritabs and Oxycontin realized the consequences the new pain relievers would have on the criminal environment and the rise of new types of addicts. They weren't doing systems thinking - they stayed in their discipline, as most of us were taught to do, in order to become expert. We, as analysts, investigators, researchers, leaders and policy-makers should be aware of what new developments in science may result in changed crime problems. We should become proactive in helping identify preventative measures alongside the scientists in some way, shape or form.
Think of how the Tylenol poisoning cases affected how we all open over-the-counter and prescription medications now. Who would have imagined that several bottles of poisoned Tylenol could lead to such a massive change in the way we all open medicines? Pharmaceuticals had to react swiftly to the threat after the fact. Could this have been anticipated and prevented? Would anyone be willing to pay to secure medicines by using foresight? Probably not. Yet, the threat could have been identified very easily.
Thinking of the implications of scientific inventions, as well as how existing things can become criminal problems, requires imagination as well as logic. Applying imagination, putting yourself in the shoes of criminals, terrorists, and emerging opportunity, to understand what new threats may emerge, is a skill we need to develop in order to affect the criminal environment the way we desire. We also have to believe that we can make a difference.
Changing the way we open medicines is preventative. It costs, but it saves lives. It doesn't require hunting out all the crazy people who might poison others using the modus operandi of contaminating supply. Rather, it leverages the point in the system of medication distribution under our control, thus circumventing using legal and investigative means to change a crime problem.
Addiction and crime is a complex problem with no easy solutions. There is no cap on a bottle. Yet, undoubtedly, there are better solutions. We just have to yet invent them.
This article ties in with my post earlier today on systems thinking and intelligence led policing. I seriously doubt the medical researchers who invented Loritabs and Oxycontin realized the consequences the new pain relievers would have on the criminal environment and the rise of new types of addicts. They weren't doing systems thinking - they stayed in their discipline, as most of us were taught to do, in order to become expert. We, as analysts, investigators, researchers, leaders and policy-makers should be aware of what new developments in science may result in changed crime problems. We should become proactive in helping identify preventative measures alongside the scientists in some way, shape or form.
Think of how the Tylenol poisoning cases affected how we all open over-the-counter and prescription medications now. Who would have imagined that several bottles of poisoned Tylenol could lead to such a massive change in the way we all open medicines? Pharmaceuticals had to react swiftly to the threat after the fact. Could this have been anticipated and prevented? Would anyone be willing to pay to secure medicines by using foresight? Probably not. Yet, the threat could have been identified very easily.
Thinking of the implications of scientific inventions, as well as how existing things can become criminal problems, requires imagination as well as logic. Applying imagination, putting yourself in the shoes of criminals, terrorists, and emerging opportunity, to understand what new threats may emerge, is a skill we need to develop in order to affect the criminal environment the way we desire. We also have to believe that we can make a difference.
Changing the way we open medicines is preventative. It costs, but it saves lives. It doesn't require hunting out all the crazy people who might poison others using the modus operandi of contaminating supply. Rather, it leverages the point in the system of medication distribution under our control, thus circumventing using legal and investigative means to change a crime problem.
Addiction and crime is a complex problem with no easy solutions. There is no cap on a bottle. Yet, undoubtedly, there are better solutions. We just have to yet invent them.
FBI - Congressional Testimony May 20, 2009
Robert S. Mueller, III, Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation
Statement Before the House Judiciary Committee May 20, 2009
This is worth reading. Here is an excerpt:
"Domain awareness is a 360-degree understanding of all national security and criminal threats in any given city or community. It is the aggregation of intelligence, to include what we already know and what we need to know, and the development of collection plans to find the best means to answer the unknowns. It involves intelligence analysts and special agents gathering, analyzing, and using information about threats, and sharing it in near real-time within a community, across the country, and around the world. With this knowledge, we can allocate resources effectively, identify and neutralize emerging threats, and develop new opportunities for intelligence collection and criminal prosecution."
Statement Before the House Judiciary Committee May 20, 2009
This is worth reading. Here is an excerpt:
"Domain awareness is a 360-degree understanding of all national security and criminal threats in any given city or community. It is the aggregation of intelligence, to include what we already know and what we need to know, and the development of collection plans to find the best means to answer the unknowns. It involves intelligence analysts and special agents gathering, analyzing, and using information about threats, and sharing it in near real-time within a community, across the country, and around the world. With this knowledge, we can allocate resources effectively, identify and neutralize emerging threats, and develop new opportunities for intelligence collection and criminal prosecution."
Systems Thinking and Intelligence Led Policing - Part 4
How does China and India affect our street crime? In the past decade, theft of copper skyrocketed in just about every police jurisdiction.(The article Red Gold Rush: The Copper Theft Epidemic will give those of you who are new to this subject an overview.) The rising costs of commodities such as copper, a rise according to experts based primarily on the industrial and domestic growth of China and India, influences street crime all over the world. Addicts commit copper theft for the quick cash needed for their next high, and, as copper prices rise, steal the metal to get more money for more drugs. We see telephone wires stripped, air conditioners stolen for the copper inside them, copper pipes stolen from homes, and on and on. Some low-level thieves disrupt power to many by stealing metal from transformers, disrupt transportation systems by stealing from railways, and affect the functioning of the critical infrastructure in their quest for cash for the next high. Organized crime learns that they can capitalize on the rising prices and increase their profit by stealing copper. The web of crime created from the growth of nations becomes more complex and difficult for us to address. China and India are each systems. The economy is a system and crime is a subsystem of that system. Copper is a system as well as a subsystem of the economy. "Minor" theft may affect major systems, such as communications, power and transportation.
In the 1999 BBC new article The third horseman: Organised crime states that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, which was an event celebrated by all of us, a "new brand of organised transnational crime, observable from Johannesburg to Prague, and from Lagos to Macau" emerged. The Council of Europe states:
"Economic barriers came down too rapidly and major upheavals followed the fall of the Berlin Wall. European countries viewed this sudden new pace of change with fascination but put off measures to deal with the adverse effects. In the last few years though they have started to respond. Combating organised crime is now one of the Council of Europe's priorities.
The International Monetary Fund puts the profits earned each year from illegal operations at some 500 billion dollars. In other words, about 2% of global GDP! Drug and arms trafficking feature among the most lucrative criminal activities. But transnational crime organisations (TCOs) have become highly diversified."
The organized crime that has sprouted as a direct result of a positive political change - the defeat of communism and the end of the Cold War - is an unintended consequence.
In systems thinking we consider how complex systems interact. For intelligence led policing to grow into what it can be, incorporating systems thinking to develop strategies, such as preparing for unintended consequences of the events in systems outside of policing, is crucial. It is possible to become proactive by looking outside our discipline to the larger world, to study the past implications of market and political influences on crime (as well as influences from other systems), and prepare ourselves in policing, even and perhaps especially at the street level, for the next, currently unknown threats. In that way we will struggle less in trying to catch up with the criminals. We should not be surprised at crime, when the indicators are clear that changes across the world can affect us in our hometowns. This is our reality.
In the 1999 BBC new article The third horseman: Organised crime states that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, which was an event celebrated by all of us, a "new brand of organised transnational crime, observable from Johannesburg to Prague, and from Lagos to Macau" emerged. The Council of Europe states:
"Economic barriers came down too rapidly and major upheavals followed the fall of the Berlin Wall. European countries viewed this sudden new pace of change with fascination but put off measures to deal with the adverse effects. In the last few years though they have started to respond. Combating organised crime is now one of the Council of Europe's priorities.
The International Monetary Fund puts the profits earned each year from illegal operations at some 500 billion dollars. In other words, about 2% of global GDP! Drug and arms trafficking feature among the most lucrative criminal activities. But transnational crime organisations (TCOs) have become highly diversified."
The organized crime that has sprouted as a direct result of a positive political change - the defeat of communism and the end of the Cold War - is an unintended consequence.
In systems thinking we consider how complex systems interact. For intelligence led policing to grow into what it can be, incorporating systems thinking to develop strategies, such as preparing for unintended consequences of the events in systems outside of policing, is crucial. It is possible to become proactive by looking outside our discipline to the larger world, to study the past implications of market and political influences on crime (as well as influences from other systems), and prepare ourselves in policing, even and perhaps especially at the street level, for the next, currently unknown threats. In that way we will struggle less in trying to catch up with the criminals. We should not be surprised at crime, when the indicators are clear that changes across the world can affect us in our hometowns. This is our reality.
Monday, May 18, 2009
New Detail Cuts Crime In Pine Hills
New Detail Cuts Crime In Pine Hills
This is a nice article on how intelligence and crime analysis are helping reduce burglary rates in an area.
This is a nice article on how intelligence and crime analysis are helping reduce burglary rates in an area.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Practice Advice: Introduction to Intelligence-Led Policing 2007
Practice Advice: Introduction to Intelligence-Led Policing 2007
"This document has been produced by the National Centre for Policing Excellence (NCPE) on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO). It will be updated according to legislative and policy changes and re-released as required.
The NCPE was established by the Police Reform Act 2002. As part of its remit the NCPE is required to develop policing doctrine, including practice advice, in consultation with ACPO, the Home Office and the Police Service. Practice advice produced by the NCPE should be used by chief officers to shape police responses to ensure that the general public experience consistent levels of service. The implementation of all practice advice will require operational choices to be made at local level in order to achieve the appropriate police response."
"This document has been produced by the National Centre for Policing Excellence (NCPE) on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO). It will be updated according to legislative and policy changes and re-released as required.
The NCPE was established by the Police Reform Act 2002. As part of its remit the NCPE is required to develop policing doctrine, including practice advice, in consultation with ACPO, the Home Office and the Police Service. Practice advice produced by the NCPE should be used by chief officers to shape police responses to ensure that the general public experience consistent levels of service. The implementation of all practice advice will require operational choices to be made at local level in order to achieve the appropriate police response."
Friday, May 15, 2009
Northeastern University Graduate Certificate In Intelligence-Led Policing
Graduate Certificate In Intelligence-Led Policing - an online program from Northeastern's College of Professional Studies.
I don't know anything about this program... does anyone out there have information/opinion about it?
I don't know anything about this program... does anyone out there have information/opinion about it?
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
The IJIS Factor: Strategic Thinking for innovations in government through technology
The IJIS Factor: Strategic Thinking for innovations in government through technology is a new blog that should provide some useful insights for the world of crime and intelligence analysis in policing.
Defining Fusion Center Technology Business Processes: A Tool for Planning
Press Release:
The IJIS Institute, on behalf of its partners, announces the release of Defining Fusion Center Technology Business Processes: A Tool for Planning, located on the web at http://www.it.ojp.gov/documents/Defining_Fusion_Center_Business_Processes.pdf.
The IJIS Institute, on behalf of its partners, announces the release of Defining Fusion Center Technology Business Processes: A Tool for Planning, located on the web at http://www.it.ojp.gov/documents/Defining_Fusion_Center_Business_Processes.pdf.
Crime Mapping Grows Up
Crime Mapping Grows Up discusses the imperfections in geo-coding. I liken my experience in geo-coding for a big city with a high crime rate to sewing one's clothes by hand - tedious, imperfect, but worth it if you want to see something in the end and can't do it any other way. This accurate article portrays important issues in crime mapping, in increased transparencies, and in inefficiencies in the current way we procure and use technology.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Monday, May 11, 2009
Serious Organised Crime Agency Article: SOCA – Get Organised
Serious Organised Crime Agency Article: SOCA – Get Organised
"The Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) is an Executive Non-Departmental Public Body sponsored by, but operationally independent from, the Home Office (in the UK). SOCA is an intelligence-led agency with law enforcement powers and harm reduction responsibilities. Harm in this context is the damage caused to people and communities by serious organised crime."
Article excerpt:
"HMIC found that “the national response to organised crime overall is blighted by the lack of a unifying strategic direction, inadequate covert capacity and underinvestment in intelligence gathering, analysis and proactive capability.” The strategy unit will be looking closely at where the weak spots are and more importantly how they can be put right." Read more...
"The Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) is an Executive Non-Departmental Public Body sponsored by, but operationally independent from, the Home Office (in the UK). SOCA is an intelligence-led agency with law enforcement powers and harm reduction responsibilities. Harm in this context is the damage caused to people and communities by serious organised crime."
Article excerpt:
"HMIC found that “the national response to organised crime overall is blighted by the lack of a unifying strategic direction, inadequate covert capacity and underinvestment in intelligence gathering, analysis and proactive capability.” The strategy unit will be looking closely at where the weak spots are and more importantly how they can be put right." Read more...
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Military Police Document Reveals Integration with Local Law Enforcement
Military Police Document Reveals Integration with Local Law Enforcement
Even if the implications in the article are untrue, the fact that the military is articulating a process in the document "Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for Police Intelligence Operations (PIO)" is a step toward codifying the integration of crime and intelligence analysis and the profession. Since this document has been leaked to the public, you must read it if you are at all interested in the development of crime and intelligence analysis in policing.
I have been finding other leaked documents recently online that would be of value to analysts and possibly policy makers, and have chosen not to post them, since I don't want the blog to overstep itself by posting classified material. Yet, if I can find it online merely through Google Alerts, that means anyone can. What do you think of my policy of not posting them? Is it wrong for me to post this document? I believe that the need of the law enforcement analytical community to be aware of this military development of an analytical cadre is high and that is why I have posted this document.
Even if the implications in the article are untrue, the fact that the military is articulating a process in the document "Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for Police Intelligence Operations (PIO)" is a step toward codifying the integration of crime and intelligence analysis and the profession. Since this document has been leaked to the public, you must read it if you are at all interested in the development of crime and intelligence analysis in policing.
I have been finding other leaked documents recently online that would be of value to analysts and possibly policy makers, and have chosen not to post them, since I don't want the blog to overstep itself by posting classified material. Yet, if I can find it online merely through Google Alerts, that means anyone can. What do you think of my policy of not posting them? Is it wrong for me to post this document? I believe that the need of the law enforcement analytical community to be aware of this military development of an analytical cadre is high and that is why I have posted this document.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Friday, May 8, 2009
Systems Thinking and Intelligence Led Policing - Part 3
Here is a good example of systems thinking that certainly correlates to addressing crime problems using Intelligence Led Policing rather than traditional measures:
"Systems thinking is a perspective because it helps us see the events and patterns in our lives in a new light—and respond to them in higher leverage ways. For example, suppose a fire breaks out in your town. This is an event. If you respond to it simply by putting the fire out, you're reacting. (That is, you have done nothing to prevent new fires.) If you respond by putting out the fire and studying where fires tend to break out in your town, you'd be paying attention to patterns. For example, you might notice that certain neighborhoods seem to suffer more fires than others. If you locate more fire stations in those areas, you're adapting. (You still haven't done anything to prevent new fires.) Now suppose you look for the systems—such as smoke-detector distribution and building materials used—that influence the patterns of neighborhood-fire outbreaks. If you build new fire-alarm systems and establish fire and safety codes, you're creating change. Finally, you're doing something to prevent new fires!
This is why looking at the world through a systems thinking "lens" is so powerful: It lets you actually make the world a better place."
~http://www.pegasuscom.com/aboutst.html
More on this topic soon!
"Systems thinking is a perspective because it helps us see the events and patterns in our lives in a new light—and respond to them in higher leverage ways. For example, suppose a fire breaks out in your town. This is an event. If you respond to it simply by putting the fire out, you're reacting. (That is, you have done nothing to prevent new fires.) If you respond by putting out the fire and studying where fires tend to break out in your town, you'd be paying attention to patterns. For example, you might notice that certain neighborhoods seem to suffer more fires than others. If you locate more fire stations in those areas, you're adapting. (You still haven't done anything to prevent new fires.) Now suppose you look for the systems—such as smoke-detector distribution and building materials used—that influence the patterns of neighborhood-fire outbreaks. If you build new fire-alarm systems and establish fire and safety codes, you're creating change. Finally, you're doing something to prevent new fires!
This is why looking at the world through a systems thinking "lens" is so powerful: It lets you actually make the world a better place."
~http://www.pegasuscom.com/aboutst.html
More on this topic soon!
Results of FBI Analysis of Reservation Deaths Announced
Results of FBI Analysis of Reservation Deaths Announced
Interesting, even when analysis tells us that what we suspect is not likely true...
Interesting, even when analysis tells us that what we suspect is not likely true...
Edgewood Community Strengthens Fight Against Crime
Edgewood Community Strengthens Fight Against Crime
Another positive mention of crime analysis in the news....
Another positive mention of crime analysis in the news....
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Systems Thinking and Intelligence Led Policing - Part 2
In yesterday's first post on this topic, I discussed the three main entities (crime intelligence analysis, decision-makers, and the criminal environment) in Jerry Ratcliffe's 3-i model of Intelligence Led Policing as "systems."
To better understand what I mean by Systems Thinking, read the excerpt on The Systems Thinking Approach from www.thinking.net:
"The approach of systems thinking is fundamentally different from that of traditional forms of analysis. Traditional analysis focuses on the separating the individual pieces of what is being studied; in fact, the word "analysis" actually comes from the root meaning "to break into constituent parts." Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system—a set of elements that interact to produce behavior—of which it is a part. This means that instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to take into account larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied. This results in sometimes strikingly different conclusions than those generated by traditional forms of analysis, especially when what is being studied is dynamically complex or has a great deal of feedback from other sources, internal or external.
The character of systems thinking makes it extremely effective on the most difficult types of problems to solve: those involving complex issues, those that depend a great deal dependence on the past or on the actions of others, and those stemming from ineffective coordination among those involved." (My bolding - to highlight the fact that policing in general, crime and intelligence analysis specifically, and ILP certainly deal with these very types of things.)
"Examples of areas in which systems thinking has proven its value include:
* Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the "big picture" and not just their part of it
* Recurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix them
* Issues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environment
* Problems whose solutions are not obvious"
The objective of ILP is to make an impact on the criminal environment. Crime intelligence analysis interprets the criminal environment, influences decision-makers, who in turn make decisions that impact on the criminal environment. This is a complex process that should require systems thinking.
For example, one sub-system of the criminal environment is the drug trade. The police decision-maker who seeks to reduce the drug trade in his or her jurisdiction needs to know everything possible about it in order to understand where limited resources can be used to most effectively decrease the activity of that system. The decision-maker, once armed with all the possible knowledge on the drug trade as a system from holistic crime intelligence analysis, can then look for leverage points where the most impact to reduce the trade may be found. Is it targeting certain individuals in a a particular criminal group? Might it be closing off a trade route? Could it involve working with housing courts to reduce absentee landlords renting to people who then operate drug houses? Perhaps it is a combination of mixed strategies.
In systems thinking, the decision-maker must also take into account how his or her activities (in this case, what the police agency does) contribute to the maintenance of current levels and/or increase of drug trade in the jurisdiction. What works and doesn't work to deter the drug trade? Do some of the things we do actually have unintended consequences of facilitating drug trade? Examples of this include silo-ing of information and lack of collaboration within and among agencies tasked with drug interdiction and enforcement.
If we look at the drug trade as a system and look for leverage points to reduce it, we can look at non-policing solutions. If new medications under development prove to decrease drug addicts' desire to use drugs actually are proven to work safely, the global drug trade may eventually dry up. If the craving for drugs can be obliterated by science, the drug problem and its secondary crimes will no longer be a central policing issue.
This is how systems thinking can work.
I will be writing about this topic in more depth in future posts.
To better understand what I mean by Systems Thinking, read the excerpt on The Systems Thinking Approach from www.thinking.net:
"The approach of systems thinking is fundamentally different from that of traditional forms of analysis. Traditional analysis focuses on the separating the individual pieces of what is being studied; in fact, the word "analysis" actually comes from the root meaning "to break into constituent parts." Systems thinking, in contrast, focuses on how the thing being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system—a set of elements that interact to produce behavior—of which it is a part. This means that instead of isolating smaller and smaller parts of the system being studied, systems thinking works by expanding its view to take into account larger and larger numbers of interactions as an issue is being studied. This results in sometimes strikingly different conclusions than those generated by traditional forms of analysis, especially when what is being studied is dynamically complex or has a great deal of feedback from other sources, internal or external.
The character of systems thinking makes it extremely effective on the most difficult types of problems to solve: those involving complex issues, those that depend a great deal dependence on the past or on the actions of others, and those stemming from ineffective coordination among those involved." (My bolding - to highlight the fact that policing in general, crime and intelligence analysis specifically, and ILP certainly deal with these very types of things.)
"Examples of areas in which systems thinking has proven its value include:
* Complex problems that involve helping many actors see the "big picture" and not just their part of it
* Recurring problems or those that have been made worse by past attempts to fix them
* Issues where an action affects (or is affected by) the environment surrounding the issue, either the natural environment or the competitive environment
* Problems whose solutions are not obvious"
The objective of ILP is to make an impact on the criminal environment. Crime intelligence analysis interprets the criminal environment, influences decision-makers, who in turn make decisions that impact on the criminal environment. This is a complex process that should require systems thinking.
For example, one sub-system of the criminal environment is the drug trade. The police decision-maker who seeks to reduce the drug trade in his or her jurisdiction needs to know everything possible about it in order to understand where limited resources can be used to most effectively decrease the activity of that system. The decision-maker, once armed with all the possible knowledge on the drug trade as a system from holistic crime intelligence analysis, can then look for leverage points where the most impact to reduce the trade may be found. Is it targeting certain individuals in a a particular criminal group? Might it be closing off a trade route? Could it involve working with housing courts to reduce absentee landlords renting to people who then operate drug houses? Perhaps it is a combination of mixed strategies.
In systems thinking, the decision-maker must also take into account how his or her activities (in this case, what the police agency does) contribute to the maintenance of current levels and/or increase of drug trade in the jurisdiction. What works and doesn't work to deter the drug trade? Do some of the things we do actually have unintended consequences of facilitating drug trade? Examples of this include silo-ing of information and lack of collaboration within and among agencies tasked with drug interdiction and enforcement.
If we look at the drug trade as a system and look for leverage points to reduce it, we can look at non-policing solutions. If new medications under development prove to decrease drug addicts' desire to use drugs actually are proven to work safely, the global drug trade may eventually dry up. If the craving for drugs can be obliterated by science, the drug problem and its secondary crimes will no longer be a central policing issue.
This is how systems thinking can work.
I will be writing about this topic in more depth in future posts.
Arrests in Boonton strong-arm robbery arrests made thanks to coordinated police effort
Arrests in Boonton strong-arm robbery arrests made thanks to coordinated police effort
Collaboration between analysts and investigators is stressed in this good article.
Collaboration between analysts and investigators is stressed in this good article.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Systems Thinking and Intelligence Led Policing
I think that the only way we will ever truly implement a change in policing that is based on decision-makers using crime intelligence information to make changes that impact the criminal environment for our common good (ILP) is through the implementation of systems thinking. In an article asking whether a certain systems thinking tool or a particular program change is more likely to be successful in creating meaningful change in an organization, systems thinking expert Jeremy Cox states:
"The simple answer is that leading this transformation is all about leadership, not the way you design the change programme. A well designed programme will help you make the change from a command-and-control to a systems design quicker and with fewer problems, but without leadership, you are destined to fail."
In Jerry Ratcliffe's three i's model of the intelligence cycle, there are three named systems: crime intelligence analysis, decision-makers, and the criminal environment.
Currently, we look at those systems as separate entities and do not study their interrelationships and how effectively they relate to one another in relation to the objective of policing: increased public safety.
Intelligence Led Policing is a new system, but its parts are disconnected.
We look at the field of analysis and train in it in an isolated fashion, getting to know the technology and techniques, but working in isolation from the decision-makers' systems. We need to be integrated into their systems in order for ILP to work.
Analysts seldom venture into the criminal environment systems to learn about it so that we can ask new questions. Nor do we look at our whole data sets and ask, how do these fit together? What parts are interrelated? Where are the leverage points where our analysis can make a real difference? Rather, we look at numbers and maps and notes to make sense. We seldom look at the criminal environment as a dynamic system, rather than as threats, cases, series, or trends.
Decision-makers rarely understand how crime intelligence analysis operates, what it needs to work, and how it can benefit them. They do not require the input from good data that the analysis system needs, nor do that envision its potential outputs. They do not see that effective analysts can be their greatest allies.
Systems thinking involves looking at how a system as a whole works, rather than try to fix its broken parts. Then, after learning how it functions, systems thinking involves strategically designing new ways of working. These ways of working must be invented, and thus often involve radical change. It must start from the top, where the power to implement change rests.
Intelligence Led Policing centers around leadership. Decision-makers are central.
Here is more from the article:
"Leadership is a deal-breaker
Why is it that leadership is so important? The bottom line is that systems thinking ideas are counter-intuitive, and represent a direct challenge to the prevailing method of management. Individuals and organisations have spent a lot of time, effort and money learning how to be good at command-and-control management. The government tell us it is the right thing to do, drives us to equate improvement with cost savings and the achievement of central targets, and sends inspectors out make sure we are following their prescriptions. Many people instinctively know that there must be a better way, and it is hard to imagine what that might be. Systems thinkers know that making that a systems alternative a reality requires direct, dedicated, leadership, what Deming called ‘Constancy of Purpose’.
When we learn to understand and manage our organisations as systems, it turns out that our present (command-and-control) ideas are the very thing that is driving waste and poor performance into our organisations. Our assumptions about structure and hierarchy, work design, roles, measures, ‘performance management’, budgets and finance, regulation, appraisals, business planning, and change management all need to change. I could go on with the list, but you see my point… Systems thinking is counter-intuitive and counter-cultural, and to ‘get it’ we need help to un-learn our command-and-control assumptions before we can re-learn. This can be strong medicine and requires direct, committed, supportive leadership – your change from a ‘command and control’ to a systems thinking organisation must be led from the top because it is a ‘leadership thing’ and ‘thinking thing’."
"The simple answer is that leading this transformation is all about leadership, not the way you design the change programme. A well designed programme will help you make the change from a command-and-control to a systems design quicker and with fewer problems, but without leadership, you are destined to fail."
In Jerry Ratcliffe's three i's model of the intelligence cycle, there are three named systems: crime intelligence analysis, decision-makers, and the criminal environment.
Currently, we look at those systems as separate entities and do not study their interrelationships and how effectively they relate to one another in relation to the objective of policing: increased public safety.
Intelligence Led Policing is a new system, but its parts are disconnected.
We look at the field of analysis and train in it in an isolated fashion, getting to know the technology and techniques, but working in isolation from the decision-makers' systems. We need to be integrated into their systems in order for ILP to work.
Analysts seldom venture into the criminal environment systems to learn about it so that we can ask new questions. Nor do we look at our whole data sets and ask, how do these fit together? What parts are interrelated? Where are the leverage points where our analysis can make a real difference? Rather, we look at numbers and maps and notes to make sense. We seldom look at the criminal environment as a dynamic system, rather than as threats, cases, series, or trends.
Decision-makers rarely understand how crime intelligence analysis operates, what it needs to work, and how it can benefit them. They do not require the input from good data that the analysis system needs, nor do that envision its potential outputs. They do not see that effective analysts can be their greatest allies.
Systems thinking involves looking at how a system as a whole works, rather than try to fix its broken parts. Then, after learning how it functions, systems thinking involves strategically designing new ways of working. These ways of working must be invented, and thus often involve radical change. It must start from the top, where the power to implement change rests.
Intelligence Led Policing centers around leadership. Decision-makers are central.
Here is more from the article:
"Leadership is a deal-breaker
Why is it that leadership is so important? The bottom line is that systems thinking ideas are counter-intuitive, and represent a direct challenge to the prevailing method of management. Individuals and organisations have spent a lot of time, effort and money learning how to be good at command-and-control management. The government tell us it is the right thing to do, drives us to equate improvement with cost savings and the achievement of central targets, and sends inspectors out make sure we are following their prescriptions. Many people instinctively know that there must be a better way, and it is hard to imagine what that might be. Systems thinkers know that making that a systems alternative a reality requires direct, dedicated, leadership, what Deming called ‘Constancy of Purpose’.
When we learn to understand and manage our organisations as systems, it turns out that our present (command-and-control) ideas are the very thing that is driving waste and poor performance into our organisations. Our assumptions about structure and hierarchy, work design, roles, measures, ‘performance management’, budgets and finance, regulation, appraisals, business planning, and change management all need to change. I could go on with the list, but you see my point… Systems thinking is counter-intuitive and counter-cultural, and to ‘get it’ we need help to un-learn our command-and-control assumptions before we can re-learn. This can be strong medicine and requires direct, committed, supportive leadership – your change from a ‘command and control’ to a systems thinking organisation must be led from the top because it is a ‘leadership thing’ and ‘thinking thing’."
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
Hillsborough deputies' program goes after worst of worst
Hillsborough deputies' program goes after worst of worst
This IS an aspect of intelligence led policing.
This IS an aspect of intelligence led policing.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Fed up with rising crime wave, Irvington battles back with new tactics
Fed up with rising crime wave, Irvington battles back with new tactics
I hate that this article equates Intelligence Led Policing with Compstat. That said, it illustrates displacement quite well.
I hate that this article equates Intelligence Led Policing with Compstat. That said, it illustrates displacement quite well.
Friday, May 1, 2009
The Future of Intelligence Analysis Volume I Final Report
The Future of Intelligence Analysis Volume I Final Report
Prepared by William J. Lahneman, Ph.D.
This 2006 study is for intelligence analysis US in the Intelligence Community, but some of the recommendations certainly relate to the development of intelligence analysis the law enforcement community.
"This study contains the findings and recommendations of the Future of Intelligence Analysis Project, an eighteen-month effort that explored what must be done to provide the US government with an effective intelligence analysis capability in the future. The year 2020 was the notional date of reference because it is near enough to make reasonably accurate forecasts possible but still far enough away to be influenced by policies enacted in the next few years. And the next few years are critical. Individuals entering the analytic workforce in the next several years will be the seasoned analysts of 2020. They will only be effective if they are properly educated recruited, trained, managed, organized – and retained, in one way or another – as assets of the U.S. intelligence community (IC)."
Prepared by William J. Lahneman, Ph.D.
This 2006 study is for intelligence analysis US in the Intelligence Community, but some of the recommendations certainly relate to the development of intelligence analysis the law enforcement community.
"This study contains the findings and recommendations of the Future of Intelligence Analysis Project, an eighteen-month effort that explored what must be done to provide the US government with an effective intelligence analysis capability in the future. The year 2020 was the notional date of reference because it is near enough to make reasonably accurate forecasts possible but still far enough away to be influenced by policies enacted in the next few years. And the next few years are critical. Individuals entering the analytic workforce in the next several years will be the seasoned analysts of 2020. They will only be effective if they are properly educated recruited, trained, managed, organized – and retained, in one way or another – as assets of the U.S. intelligence community (IC)."
Pocket guide to intelligence‐led policing
Pocket guide to intelligence‐led policing
One of my students fortuitously cited this resource in a research paper, and I like it!
One of my students fortuitously cited this resource in a research paper, and I like it!
Technology isn’t the (biggest) problem for information sharing in law enforcement
Technology isn’t the (biggest) problem for information sharing in law enforcement
This PoliceOne.com editorial is worth reading.
This PoliceOne.com editorial is worth reading.
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