Monday, March 30, 2009
Let's Put Bylines on Our 'National' Intelligence Estimates
Let's Put Bylines on Our 'National' Intelligence Estimates is an interesting editorial from the March 28 Wall Street Journal. It raises the question of accountability for analysts.
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A horrible idea. First off, i believe the author is conflating "conclusion with which I disagree" with "bad conclusion through faulty analysis or bad faith". He lists some failures, but dismisses sucessful predictions as "unspectacular". So, heads I win, tails you lose? The IC can't catch a break by that metric.
ReplyDeleteAdding a byline is senseless for other reasons. First off, any lawmaker can already find the contributor to any particular piece of information in the NIE, if they choose. I sincerely doubt the IC just destroys the reference listing once the estimate is published. Second, contrary to the author's claims, a byline gives an analyst a strong incentive to make the most generalized, watered-down, and weasel-worded analysis possible. Why stick your neck out if you know that your analysis will be the noose that hangs you.
Not to mention, I don't see how this will remove the problem of politicizing intel. Quite the opposite. If Analyst X not only knows that President Y prefers a particular answer, but that POTUS will see his or her name by that answer, that creates a huge incentive to just please the boss.
I was going to go line by line, but my computer keeps freezing up, so I will just end by saying BAD IDEA!.