Confidence in Uncertainty

As an analyst, you gather, sift, and sort through a great deal of information to come up with relevant insights. Your role is often simply to present the possibility that you have uncovered a problem, or relationship, or pattern. You are early in the process, the discoverer, and you have no proof that you are right. Yet you need to communicate your findings with a level of confidence. This confidence should be in the process, the process of looking, exploring, leaving few or no stones unturned. Place your confidence in the process. Report your findings with confidence with no claim of certainty. You are not certain you are right. Use the language of:

~it appears that

~there may be

~analysis of data shows a possible relationship

~compared to this I see that

Your value at this point is similar to a navigator.

Oxford Language dictionary definition:

Navigator: a person who directs the route or course of a ship, aircraft, or other form of transportation, especially by using instruments and maps.

The technology and data used are the maps your expertise allows you to read. You have a special role in policing, investigations, and law enforcement. Continuous improvement of your skills will give you legitimate reasons to be confident yet uncertain. 

The abstract in this article differentiates between uncertainty and confidence: Confidence, uncertainty, and the use of information.

Food for thought:

Expressing uncertainty in criminology: Applying insights from scientific communication to evidence-based policing