7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report

 The 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report is available at this link.

“Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.”

-Sherman Kent

Founder of the Office of National Estimates

Welcome to the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.

Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.

Each edition of Global Trends is a unique undertaking, as its authors on the National Intelligence Council develop a methodology and formulate the analysis. This process involved numerous steps: examining and evaluating previous editions of Global Trends for lessons learned; research and discovery involving widespread consultations, data collection, and commissioned research; synthesizing, outlining, and drafting; and soliciting internal and external feedback to revise and sharpen the analysis.