"Decision-makers commonly mistake complex systems for simply complicated ones and look for solutions without realizing that ‘learning to dance’ with a complex system is definitely different from ‘solving’ the problems arising from it." – Roberto Poli
7 Differences between complex and complicated is a blog post that might be a bit esoteric for some readers, but it had me thinking deeply about crime problems.
Read the article to see if it gets you thinking, too. I cannot summarize it but to say I believe crime occurs in complex systems, and that it would be helpful to recognize that, especially as we look more and more to artificial intelligence to predict crime accurately.
Another quote from Robert Poli in the post:
"Complicated problems originate from causes that can be individually distinguished; they can be addressed piece by piece; for each input to the system there is a proportionate output; the relevant systems can be controlled and the problems they present admit permanent solutions.
On the other hand, complex problems and systems result from networks of multiple interacting causes that cannot be individually distinguished; must be addressed as entire systems, that is they cannot be addressed in a piecemeal way; they are such that small inputs may result in disproportionate effects; the problems they present cannot be solved once and for ever, but require to be systematically managed and typically any intervention merges into new problems as a result of the interventions dealing with them; and the relevant systems cannot be controlled – the best one can do is to influence them, or learn to “dance with them” as Donatella Meadows rightly said."
A quote from the blog article:
"The complexity of a system is not dependent on the amount of available data or knowledge. We cannot transform complex systems into complicated ones by spending more time and resources on collecting more data or developing better theories."
Hmmm....
No comments:
Post a Comment