The article at this post's title link, by Carmen A. Medina, is found at the CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence Website. While it is speaking of analysts in national security, the concepts can and should be applied to analysts in policing.
Some particular points raised in the article that can be applied to the development of crime and intelligence analysis include:
"Analysts must concentrate on ideas rather than intelligence" - in policing, this means not just describing or summarizing what has happened in the past, but providing ideas through interpretation/insight and finding best practice strategies.
"Analysts must think beyond finished intelligence" - in policing, this means getting the information that is important to decision-makers quickly, whether it is through formal reports or not, as well as revisiting products and keeping them dynamic and open to revision based on the changes that occur in the real world.
The author describes the qualities of "old analysis" and a "21st Century Analysis" model that are relevant to the development of crime and intelligence analysis in policing:
"The Old Analysis: Cautious/Careful, Fact-based, Concrete/Reality-based, Linear/Trend-based, Expert-based, Hierarchical, Precedent-based, Worst-case/Warning-focused, Text-based, Detached/Neutral
21st Century Analysis: Aggressive/Bold/Courageous, Intuitive, Metaphor-rich, Complex, Humble, Inclusive, Diverse, Collaborative, Precedent-shattering, Opportunistic/Optimistic, Image-rich, Customer-driven/Policy-relevant"
Analysts need to develop the qualities and skills that will make them 21st Century Analysts.
Sounds like Nassim Taleb's "Mediocristan" vs. "Extremistan."
ReplyDeleteCan you explain?
ReplyDeleteNassim Taleb is the author of "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan". He theorizes about "black swans" which are low-probability high-impact events that are difficult to predict and completely upset any attempt to use linear extrapolations of the past to predict the future.
ReplyDeleteBlack Swan is a very entertaining book, I highly recommend it - very applicable to intelligence analysis (I'd imagine crime analysis as well).