PREDICTIVE POLICING: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

PREDICTIVE POLICING: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations is a 2013 RAND report available at this link.

"Smart, effective, and proactive policing is clearly preferable to simply reacting to criminal acts. Although there are many methods to help police respond to crime and conduct investigations more effectively, predicting where and when a crime is likely to occur—and who is likely responsible for prior crimes—has recently gained considerable currency. Law enforcement agencies across the United States are employing a range of predictive policing approaches, and much has been written about their effectiveness. This guide for practitioners offers a focused examination of the predictive techniques currently in use, identifies the techniques that show promise if adopted in conjunction with other policing methods, and shares findings and recommendations to inform future research and clarify the policy implications of predictive policing."

While technology develops swiftly and has improved since 2013, this report is still very useful in articulating important predictive policing concepts, including predictive policing myths. 

"Myth 1: The Computer Actually Knows the Future"

"Myth 2: The Computer Will Do Everything for You"

"Myth 3: You Need a High-Powered (and Expensive) Model" (of computer)

"Myth 4: Accurate Predictions Automatically Lead to Major Crime Reductions"