"How it works
1. You find something you want to read, but you don't have time now. You click Read Later.
2. When you have time to read, you come here on your computer or phone and get whatever you wanted to read."
This puts all the links in one place - you can then get rid of the bookmarks you don't want but made because you were busy online doing something else. I tried it this morning - works best on Firefox and Safari.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Help for police is strictly by the numbers
This is a news article about an award winning crime analysis unit volunteer...
Rx Pattern Analysis Tracking Robberies & Other Losses
A Pharmacy Security Checklist is just one of several interesting resources at this web site. It represents the kind of collaboration that could, and should, be done by law enforcement agencies and also is an example of privatization of analysis.
"RxPATROL® is a collaborative effort between industry and law enforcement designed to collect, collate, analyze and disseminate pharmacy theft information. RxPATROL helps protect the pharmacy environment and ensure legitimate patients' access to life-sustaining medicine."
"RxPATROL® is a collaborative effort between industry and law enforcement designed to collect, collate, analyze and disseminate pharmacy theft information. RxPATROL helps protect the pharmacy environment and ensure legitimate patients' access to life-sustaining medicine."
Friday, March 28, 2008
Networks: orgnet.com
Here is a great web site to learn more about social networking. .It includes examples of criminal/terrorist networks This is an important topic for analysts.
Traveling criminal activity can be better understood by analyzing the social networks involved. Looking at specific, known criminal networks can help you make recommendations to leverage law enforcement resources. Such leverages can significantly improve prevention, detection, and response.
Traveling criminal activity can be better understood by analyzing the social networks involved. Looking at specific, known criminal networks can help you make recommendations to leverage law enforcement resources. Such leverages can significantly improve prevention, detection, and response.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Analytical Imagination: Traveling Criminals
It has been my experience as a trainer of analysts that a number of analysts admit that they are not creative in using analytical techniques and developing analytical products. I hope to provide some ideas for analysts analyzing particular problems. I will do this on a frequent basis using specific crime problems.
So how might you analyze this problem of traveling criminals and how might you share your findings with those you can take action on the new knowledge you produce?
For the problem of traveling criminals:
Create target profiles of individuals known to be in your are and those who have been in your area in the past - these profiles should include associates, modus operandi, arrest histories, photos, maps, aliases, and other pertinent information. The information should be succinct and well-presented. The profiles should be made available to all your officers.
A set of indicators for traveling criminal activity should be developed for your officers and they should be advised to collect complete information when taking reports that involve these indicators.
Advisories for citizens should be prepared containing general indicators of traveling criminal activity. Your public information officer should inform the media. Extra effort is important to make sure that senior citizen centers and senior outreach workers receive these advisories to prevent victimization.
A computer folder should be maintained on this topic and updated whenever relevant reports and other information is gathered on traveling criminals. You may create a code or flag for traveling criminals to use in a database you already use, or keep an Excel spreadsheet with traveling criminal related data. This way you don't have to repeat queries or try to remember where you have the information. Keep photos, reports, histories, products, open source information, maps, information from other jurisdictions - everything you have on on this topic - in one place and update it as new information develops.
Map incident involving past crime by traveling criminals over as many years as possible. Do you have hot spots or small clusters of crimes? Can special effort be made to contact vulnerable citizens for prevention efforts in those neighborhoods?
These are just a few suggestions to help you think - if you have others, please comment for other blog readers. Thank you!
So how might you analyze this problem of traveling criminals and how might you share your findings with those you can take action on the new knowledge you produce?
For the problem of traveling criminals:
Create target profiles of individuals known to be in your are and those who have been in your area in the past - these profiles should include associates, modus operandi, arrest histories, photos, maps, aliases, and other pertinent information. The information should be succinct and well-presented. The profiles should be made available to all your officers.
A set of indicators for traveling criminal activity should be developed for your officers and they should be advised to collect complete information when taking reports that involve these indicators.
Advisories for citizens should be prepared containing general indicators of traveling criminal activity. Your public information officer should inform the media. Extra effort is important to make sure that senior citizen centers and senior outreach workers receive these advisories to prevent victimization.
A computer folder should be maintained on this topic and updated whenever relevant reports and other information is gathered on traveling criminals. You may create a code or flag for traveling criminals to use in a database you already use, or keep an Excel spreadsheet with traveling criminal related data. This way you don't have to repeat queries or try to remember where you have the information. Keep photos, reports, histories, products, open source information, maps, information from other jurisdictions - everything you have on on this topic - in one place and update it as new information develops.
Map incident involving past crime by traveling criminals over as many years as possible. Do you have hot spots or small clusters of crimes? Can special effort be made to contact vulnerable citizens for prevention efforts in those neighborhoods?
These are just a few suggestions to help you think - if you have others, please comment for other blog readers. Thank you!
Analyzing the Problem of Traveling Criminals
So, it is spring and traveling criminals are more likely to be spotted moving north - how will you know?
Looking for crime reports or open source information in the form of news reports that have various elements. Examples of terms you might query:
paving
roofing
scam
fraud
elderly
ruse
impersonate
driveway
roof
two women
repair(s)
didn't return
Network with officers and analysts are also interested in working on this issue. Start an informal mailing list and share what you have found. Develop your own list indicators and share them.
Analyze and then produce reports as needed - make sure you get the reports to the appropriate decision-makers.
Looking for crime reports or open source information in the form of news reports that have various elements. Examples of terms you might query:
paving
roofing
scam
fraud
elderly
ruse
impersonate
driveway
roof
two women
repair(s)
didn't return
Network with officers and analysts are also interested in working on this issue. Start an informal mailing list and share what you have found. Develop your own list indicators and share them.
Analyze and then produce reports as needed - make sure you get the reports to the appropriate decision-makers.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Tackling Cross Border Crime
This 1996 Home Office (UK) paper by Mike Porter delves into the subject of criminals who may elude detection by consciously operated in different police jurisdictions. While the traveling criminals are not necessarily the type whom I am blogging about this week, this paper explores a relevant aspect of the topic.
"Cross border crime is characterised by an offender crossing a police force boundary to perpetrate a crime or commit an offence which requires the police to cross boundaries to investigate it. The objective of this work, which was undertaken to support the ACPO Working Group on International National and Inter-force Crime,was to measure the extent of such crime and assess the current police response to it in order that good practice be identified and disseminated.
As no national data on the extent of cross border crime existed three large scale surveys were undertaken involving a total of 39 police forces throughout the United Kingdom. Interviews were conducted with police officers in four forces and with convicted ‘travelling’ criminals in five prisons in and around London."
"Cross border crime is characterised by an offender crossing a police force boundary to perpetrate a crime or commit an offence which requires the police to cross boundaries to investigate it. The objective of this work, which was undertaken to support the ACPO Working Group on International National and Inter-force Crime,was to measure the extent of such crime and assess the current police response to it in order that good practice be identified and disseminated.
As no national data on the extent of cross border crime existed three large scale surveys were undertaken involving a total of 39 police forces throughout the United Kingdom. Interviews were conducted with police officers in four forces and with convicted ‘travelling’ criminals in five prisons in and around London."
Traveling Criminal Warning Signs
These articles illustrate how traveling criminals operate:
Bogus Caller Impostor and Deception Theft or Distraction Burglary by Traveling Criminals (Scroll down - there are a collection of articles on this web page)
Paving Season Brings Traveling Criminals
Many ‘traveler’ criminals have long arrest records
Home Repair & Service Scams (flyer)
Traveling or Gypsy Criminals
Bogus Caller Impostor and Deception Theft or Distraction Burglary by Traveling Criminals (Scroll down - there are a collection of articles on this web page)
Paving Season Brings Traveling Criminals
Many ‘traveler’ criminals have long arrest records
Home Repair & Service Scams (flyer)
Traveling or Gypsy Criminals
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Seminole County Sheriff's Office Travelling Criminals Index
This is an extremely interesting site that will provide you with pictures and details regarding many previously arrested traveling criminals and their MOs. It appears to be quite dated; nevertheless, it is informative.
Traveling criminals: take the money and run
From The FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, July, 1994 by Gary L. Mazzone
This article may be 14 years old, but it provides information on traveling criminals that is still relevant today.
This article may be 14 years old, but it provides information on traveling criminals that is still relevant today.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Targeted Enforcement
This news article describes how Peel Regional Police use crime analysis in targeted enforcement.
Traveling Criminals
The National Association of Bunco Investigators has information relevant to analysts studying the problem of traveling criminals.
From their website:
"The word "bunco" comes from the Spanish word "banco," meaning bank, and is used to describe several swindle schemes. Other terms for the swindles are confidence or con games.
In a scheme, the bunco operator:
-gains the participant's confidence by telling a believable story
-asks for the participant's help or promises the participant money or goods
-asks the participant to show "good faith" by producing cash in advance for the promised money or goods."
Traveling criminals move across areas of the country and conduct various scams. It is imperative for LE agencies to share AND analyze information if we are to detect these types of criminals.
From their website:
"The word "bunco" comes from the Spanish word "banco," meaning bank, and is used to describe several swindle schemes. Other terms for the swindles are confidence or con games.
In a scheme, the bunco operator:
-gains the participant's confidence by telling a believable story
-asks for the participant's help or promises the participant money or goods
-asks the participant to show "good faith" by producing cash in advance for the promised money or goods."
Traveling criminals move across areas of the country and conduct various scams. It is imperative for LE agencies to share AND analyze information if we are to detect these types of criminals.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
A Wiki Is Like A Room
A Wiki Is Like A Room And Other Lessons Learned From 15 Wiki-based, Open Source, Intelligence Analysis Projects (Final Version With Abstract) by Kristan Wheaton
Penn State Program
Security and Risk Analysis
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS AND MODELING OPTION (IAM)
This option focuses on developing a more thorough knowledge of the strategic and tactical levels of intelligence collection, analysis, and decision-making. This includes examining the foundations of decision analysis, economic theory, statistics, data mining*, and knowledge management, as well as the security-specific contexts in which such knowledge is applied.
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS AND MODELING OPTION (IAM)
This option focuses on developing a more thorough knowledge of the strategic and tactical levels of intelligence collection, analysis, and decision-making. This includes examining the foundations of decision analysis, economic theory, statistics, data mining*, and knowledge management, as well as the security-specific contexts in which such knowledge is applied.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Making progress on crime
Interesting news article on about a "crime reduction unit" with a crime analyst who gets some credit for a drop in crime.
"Expert and Traveling Criminals" 1920 Wanted by Scotland Yard
"Expert and Traveling Criminals." Scotland Yard. 8pp., 7.5x11, Vol. VII, No. 21, Oct. 15, 1920. Removed from ledger but complete; edges frayed. With official annotations in black and red ink. Confidential supplement to Police Gazette. Consists of coversheet of mug-shots of 6 bad guys followed by 4 pages describing their m.o.'s and 2 pages of short notes on other criminals. Bad Guy 338, for example, "engaged lodging with working class people by representing ... that he was a discharged wounded soldier, ... remained the night and absconded with cash, etc." Female Bad Guy 340 defrauded merchants, aided by such attributes as "lady-like deportment, refined, Scotch accent; fond of dress, the society of men of good position and theatrical people." These confidential supplements, which portray not only criminal methods but the subtleties of the British class system, rarely come to market. w174 $35 at http://www.patterson-smith.com/wanted.htm
Friday, March 21, 2008
Next Week: Traveling Criminals
Spring does bring more crime by traveling criminals. More on this next week!
The Eight Irresistable Principles of Fun
Something to cheer you for the weekend! Analysts must be daring...
Counter-Terrorism Training and Resources for Law Enforcemen
The Counter-Terrorism Training and Resources for Law Enforcement web site has a very nice list of publications related to homeland security issues.
National Fusion Center Conference
The National Fusion Center Conference was held in San Francisco this week. "Wired Blog Network" had a post critical of the fusion center concept.
Jerry Ratcliffe's new book, Intelligence-Led Policing, concludes with the sentence:
"One challenge for the immediate future may well be enrolling public support and explaining to communities the value of intelligence-led policing in keeping them safe and secure." (page 237 - BTW - note that at the book link you will find MS PowerPoint slides on book subject matter)
Five principles are identified in the International Association of Chiefs of Police report From Hometown Security to Homeland Security: IACP's Principles For A Locally Designed and Nationally Coordinated Homeland Security Strategy:
" * All terrorism is local. "Local, not federal, authorities have the primary responsibility for preventing, responding to and recovering from terrorist attacks."
* Prevention is paramount. "For too long, federal strategies have minimized the importance of prevention, instead focusing on response and recovery."
* Hometown security is homeland security. Because of their day-to-day work, "state and local law enforcement officers are uniquely situated to identify, investigate and apprehend suspected terrorists."
* Homeland security strategies must be coordinated nationally, not federally. Federal agencies have too often limited state, tribal and local public-safety community input "to participation in advisory panels and working groups that have little impact on policy development." A truly national effort would ensure that all levels of government-local, tribal, state and federal-participate in policy design and development "as full and equal partners."
* Bottom-up engineering, public-safety diversity and noncompetitive collaboration are key. "A truly successful national strategy must recognize, embrace and value the vast diversity among state and local law enforcement and public safety agencies. A one-size-fits-all approach will fail to secure our homeland."
If fusion centers are a step in the direction of intelligence-led policing, they will have to benefit local level law enforcement - and address the crime threats that affect the communities in which citizens work, play, and sleep. Citizens have to believe in the value of ILP in their lives - not just as a nation, but in their communities.
How much effort do we put toward educating the public about the value of crime and intelligence analysis? Citizens are the sources of government funds - until they believe we need more crime and intelligence analysis, they will prefer to have one more police car on their street rather than analysts in an office thinking about how to prevent real crime.
Educating the public is mandatory - but who will do it?
Jerry Ratcliffe's new book, Intelligence-Led Policing, concludes with the sentence:
"One challenge for the immediate future may well be enrolling public support and explaining to communities the value of intelligence-led policing in keeping them safe and secure." (page 237 - BTW - note that at the book link you will find MS PowerPoint slides on book subject matter)
Five principles are identified in the International Association of Chiefs of Police report From Hometown Security to Homeland Security: IACP's Principles For A Locally Designed and Nationally Coordinated Homeland Security Strategy:
" * All terrorism is local. "Local, not federal, authorities have the primary responsibility for preventing, responding to and recovering from terrorist attacks."
* Prevention is paramount. "For too long, federal strategies have minimized the importance of prevention, instead focusing on response and recovery."
* Hometown security is homeland security. Because of their day-to-day work, "state and local law enforcement officers are uniquely situated to identify, investigate and apprehend suspected terrorists."
* Homeland security strategies must be coordinated nationally, not federally. Federal agencies have too often limited state, tribal and local public-safety community input "to participation in advisory panels and working groups that have little impact on policy development." A truly national effort would ensure that all levels of government-local, tribal, state and federal-participate in policy design and development "as full and equal partners."
* Bottom-up engineering, public-safety diversity and noncompetitive collaboration are key. "A truly successful national strategy must recognize, embrace and value the vast diversity among state and local law enforcement and public safety agencies. A one-size-fits-all approach will fail to secure our homeland."
If fusion centers are a step in the direction of intelligence-led policing, they will have to benefit local level law enforcement - and address the crime threats that affect the communities in which citizens work, play, and sleep. Citizens have to believe in the value of ILP in their lives - not just as a nation, but in their communities.
How much effort do we put toward educating the public about the value of crime and intelligence analysis? Citizens are the sources of government funds - until they believe we need more crime and intelligence analysis, they will prefer to have one more police car on their street rather than analysts in an office thinking about how to prevent real crime.
Educating the public is mandatory - but who will do it?
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Open Source Intelligence
Crime and intelligence analysts are sometimes so overwhelmed with the data within their agencies and/or cases that analyzing open source information seems like an impossible additional burden. Yet, now more than ever, open source information is a valuable resource for analysts. Note that ALL the links on this blog are open source information.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Defense Intelligence Agency Awards Contract to SRA
The press release at the post title describes a major contract that "will provide a wide range of intelligence analysis and related services to the defense intelligence community."
How much crime and intelligence analysis could be privatized in policing? What abut the tacit knowledge of experienced workers in a locality or in a specialty? What could be privatized and what cannot be privatized? How much do we want privatized and beyond government boundaries?
How much crime and intelligence analysis could be privatized in policing? What abut the tacit knowledge of experienced workers in a locality or in a specialty? What could be privatized and what cannot be privatized? How much do we want privatized and beyond government boundaries?
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Types of Information to Analyze
Here is a list of some of the information an analyst might analyze:
911 Call Data
Academic Research
Alarm Company Info
Anonymous Tips
Arrest Data
Best Practices Research
Business Info
Business Licensing Info
Business Open Source Information
Census Data
Citizen Complaint Info
Computer Files
Community Organization Info
Confidential Informant Info
County Records
Crime Reports
Critical Infrastructure Info
Demographics Data
Drug Overdose/Death Info
Field Interview Forms
Financial Records
Fire/Rescue data
Firearm Licenses
Gang Info
Geographic Data
Graffiti
Hunting/Fishing Licenses
Intelligence Info
Investigative Follow-up Reports
Juvenile Offender Info
Land Use Info
Liquor License Location Info
Media Open Source Info
Neighborhood Watch Info
Offender Data
Open Source Info
Organized Crime Info
Other Law Enforcement Agency Info
Parks Info
Parole Info
Pawnshop Info
Physical Evidence Info
Private Security Info
Premise Hazard Info
Probation Info
Professional Licensing Info
Property Ownership Info
Public Health Data
Public Housing Info
Public Transformation Route Info
Registered Sex Offender Info
Scar, Marls,and Tattoo Data
School Info
Social Services Info
Stolen/Recovered Property
Street Map Data
Surveillance Info
Telephone Records
Temporal Data
Terrorist Threat Info
Threat Assessments
Traffic Stop Info
Victim Data
Video
This is where imagination comes in - how we find what information meshes to create actionable intelligence. What could we know if we connect the right pieces of information?
911 Call Data
Academic Research
Alarm Company Info
Anonymous Tips
Arrest Data
Best Practices Research
Business Info
Business Licensing Info
Business Open Source Information
Census Data
Citizen Complaint Info
Computer Files
Community Organization Info
Confidential Informant Info
County Records
Crime Reports
Critical Infrastructure Info
Demographics Data
Drug Overdose/Death Info
Field Interview Forms
Financial Records
Fire/Rescue data
Firearm Licenses
Gang Info
Geographic Data
Graffiti
Hunting/Fishing Licenses
Intelligence Info
Investigative Follow-up Reports
Juvenile Offender Info
Land Use Info
Liquor License Location Info
Media Open Source Info
Neighborhood Watch Info
Offender Data
Open Source Info
Organized Crime Info
Other Law Enforcement Agency Info
Parks Info
Parole Info
Pawnshop Info
Physical Evidence Info
Private Security Info
Premise Hazard Info
Probation Info
Professional Licensing Info
Property Ownership Info
Public Health Data
Public Housing Info
Public Transformation Route Info
Registered Sex Offender Info
Scar, Marls,and Tattoo Data
School Info
Social Services Info
Stolen/Recovered Property
Street Map Data
Surveillance Info
Telephone Records
Temporal Data
Terrorist Threat Info
Threat Assessments
Traffic Stop Info
Victim Data
Video
This is where imagination comes in - how we find what information meshes to create actionable intelligence. What could we know if we connect the right pieces of information?
Monday, March 17, 2008
Some Online Mapping Sites
My SUNY Empire State College Crime and Intelligence Analysis students just finished a discussion on online crime mapping websites. Here are some of their recommended sites:
Columbus, Ohio
Beaverton, Oregon
Port St. Lucie, Florida
Atlanta, Georgia
Dallas, Texas
Oakland, California
Anchorage, Alaska
Syracuse, New York
Columbus, Ohio
Beaverton, Oregon
Port St. Lucie, Florida
Atlanta, Georgia
Dallas, Texas
Oakland, California
Anchorage, Alaska
Syracuse, New York
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Cops work on faster tracking strategy
This news article describes how, with the implementation of intelligence led policing, we can better track career criminals. It is worth reading!
Friday, March 14, 2008
Strategic Thinking in Criminal Intelligence
I have not read this book but is definitely is on-topic!
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Police dispatchers forced to yell information as computers stall
The news article in the post title link describes a problem of technology - as we seek to develop intelligence led policing, as mentioned in this article, we need to create effective infrastructures. Not this nightmare! Unfortunately, problems with technology are VERY common in policing agencies.
Thinking Strategically About Copper Theft
On Tuesday I wrote about using systems thinking to think strategically about copper theft. When using systems thinking, we also include our role in the system - meaning, that of law enforcement/policing. What impact do our actions have in the "system" of copper theft?
The reality is that in the U.S.,law enforcement agencies are so fragmented that it is very difficult for them to act in a concerted strategic effort to combat a crime as widespread as copper theft. Crimes attributed to drug addicts are generally not high priority for investigations - and, indeed - case by case investigations are not a strategic method.
It is difficult to assess the actual amount of such crime if records are not kept in a manner that allows queries on specific properties stolen. Do we really know how much of a problem this crime is causing? There are no national statistics on copper theft. In many cases, the crime seems like a low-level crime that is of lower priority than many of the more obvious threats to the public safety of a particular jurisdiction.
Yet copper theft disrupts many important systems in the infrastructure of populated areas all over the world. Examples:
- Transportation systems: railroad equipment has been damaged, highways have been stripped of lighting
- Agriculture systems: irrigation systems have been damaged (read link plaid collar crime)
- Telecommunication systems: emergency services are impacted by cut wires
- Vacant Housing markets: copper theft is devaluing real estate
- Construction systems: new construction is the target of copper thieves
- Power systems: electrical systems are disrupted
Organized crime is also involved in copper theft. To what degree - we do not know.
Hospitals are affected.
Airports are affected.
Cemeteries, churches, and temples are affected.
Schools are affected.
Legislators are also part of the system of copper theft - will their efforts make an impact? Insurance companies seek to minimize risk and are participants in the copper theft system - anyone involved - victim, enforcer, perpetrator, fence, etc - all are part of the system and studying how the parts interact can help us make better strategic choices.
The reality is that in the U.S.,law enforcement agencies are so fragmented that it is very difficult for them to act in a concerted strategic effort to combat a crime as widespread as copper theft. Crimes attributed to drug addicts are generally not high priority for investigations - and, indeed - case by case investigations are not a strategic method.
It is difficult to assess the actual amount of such crime if records are not kept in a manner that allows queries on specific properties stolen. Do we really know how much of a problem this crime is causing? There are no national statistics on copper theft. In many cases, the crime seems like a low-level crime that is of lower priority than many of the more obvious threats to the public safety of a particular jurisdiction.
Yet copper theft disrupts many important systems in the infrastructure of populated areas all over the world. Examples:
- Transportation systems: railroad equipment has been damaged, highways have been stripped of lighting
- Agriculture systems: irrigation systems have been damaged (read link plaid collar crime)
- Telecommunication systems: emergency services are impacted by cut wires
- Vacant Housing markets: copper theft is devaluing real estate
- Construction systems: new construction is the target of copper thieves
- Power systems: electrical systems are disrupted
Organized crime is also involved in copper theft. To what degree - we do not know.
Hospitals are affected.
Airports are affected.
Cemeteries, churches, and temples are affected.
Schools are affected.
Legislators are also part of the system of copper theft - will their efforts make an impact? Insurance companies seek to minimize risk and are participants in the copper theft system - anyone involved - victim, enforcer, perpetrator, fence, etc - all are part of the system and studying how the parts interact can help us make better strategic choices.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Srategy Grand Tour Slideshow
While crime/intelligence analysis is not a commercial corporate process, this slide show is a nice overview of some resources for looking at strategy.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Strategic Thinking Involves Systems Thinking
Let's use the concept of systems thinking to discuss copper theft. Systems thinking is strategic in nature. The awareness of systems is necessary for good strategic thinking in crime and intelligence analysis.
"Systems Thinking: It is a unique approach to problem solving, in that it views certain 'problems' as a part of the overall system so focusing on these outcomes will only further develop the undesired element or problem." Systems thinking - excerpt from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
If we focus on the traditional outcomes of law enforcement efforts to address copper theft - investigation and possible arrest and successful prosecution of offenders - we are quite short-sighted. Many thefts appear to be committed by drug addicts to fuel their addiction, thefts that are often of insignificant property value (the destruction of associated property is often higher in cost than the value of stolen goods). Going after the drug addicted thieves is not the best way to "leverage the system" as the supply of drug addicts to the system of "copper theft" is potentially endless. In this type of crime "catching the bad guys" doesn't change the crime problem significantly. Catch one batch of criminals and new individuals and groups take their place (as in the frustrating war on drugs).
If we focus on a more strategic tactic, seeking to influence the markets for scrap copper by regulating scrap metal dealers, we are engaging in systems thinking. We study a problem by looking how a part influences the whole.
"Systems thinking is a framework that is based on the belief that the component parts of a system will act differently when the systems relationships are removed and it is viewed in isolation. The only way to fully understand why a problem or element occurs and persists is to understand the part in relation to the whole. Standing in contrast to Descartes', scientific reductionism and philosophical analysis, it proposes to view systems in a holistic manner. Consistent with systems philosophy, systems thinking concerns an understanding of a system by examining the linkages and interactions between the elements that comprise the entirety of the system.
Systems thinking attempts to illustrate that events are separated by distance and time and that small catalytic events can cause large changes in complex systems. Acknowledging that an improvement in one area of a system can adversely affect another area of the system, it promotes organizational communication at all levels in order to avoid the silo effect. Systems thinking techniques may be used to study any kind of system — natural, scientific, engineered, human, or conceptual." Systems thinking - excerpt from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The "system of copper theft" has many components. To find solutions to the problem, we should look at all the parts of the system AND how they influence one the other parts. Use an example to test your systems thinking - read Scott Berinato"s article Copper Theft: The Metal Theft Epidemic and look for the various parts within the system of copper theft. Some of the parts are also systems - what systems are affected by copper theft?
How could the news in the article China Copper Demand Is Slowing, Jiangxi Copper Says by Xiao Yu and Li Xiaowei influence the system of copper theft?
More Reading on Systems Thinking
Applied Systems Thinking
Overview of Systems Thinking
Systems Theory
"A system is an entity which maintains its existence
through the mutual interaction of its parts." from "Systems" webpage - quote attributed to Biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy
"Systems Thinking: It is a unique approach to problem solving, in that it views certain 'problems' as a part of the overall system so focusing on these outcomes will only further develop the undesired element or problem." Systems thinking - excerpt from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
If we focus on the traditional outcomes of law enforcement efforts to address copper theft - investigation and possible arrest and successful prosecution of offenders - we are quite short-sighted. Many thefts appear to be committed by drug addicts to fuel their addiction, thefts that are often of insignificant property value (the destruction of associated property is often higher in cost than the value of stolen goods). Going after the drug addicted thieves is not the best way to "leverage the system" as the supply of drug addicts to the system of "copper theft" is potentially endless. In this type of crime "catching the bad guys" doesn't change the crime problem significantly. Catch one batch of criminals and new individuals and groups take their place (as in the frustrating war on drugs).
If we focus on a more strategic tactic, seeking to influence the markets for scrap copper by regulating scrap metal dealers, we are engaging in systems thinking. We study a problem by looking how a part influences the whole.
"Systems thinking is a framework that is based on the belief that the component parts of a system will act differently when the systems relationships are removed and it is viewed in isolation. The only way to fully understand why a problem or element occurs and persists is to understand the part in relation to the whole. Standing in contrast to Descartes', scientific reductionism and philosophical analysis, it proposes to view systems in a holistic manner. Consistent with systems philosophy, systems thinking concerns an understanding of a system by examining the linkages and interactions between the elements that comprise the entirety of the system.
Systems thinking attempts to illustrate that events are separated by distance and time and that small catalytic events can cause large changes in complex systems. Acknowledging that an improvement in one area of a system can adversely affect another area of the system, it promotes organizational communication at all levels in order to avoid the silo effect. Systems thinking techniques may be used to study any kind of system — natural, scientific, engineered, human, or conceptual." Systems thinking - excerpt from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The "system of copper theft" has many components. To find solutions to the problem, we should look at all the parts of the system AND how they influence one the other parts. Use an example to test your systems thinking - read Scott Berinato"s article Copper Theft: The Metal Theft Epidemic and look for the various parts within the system of copper theft. Some of the parts are also systems - what systems are affected by copper theft?
How could the news in the article China Copper Demand Is Slowing, Jiangxi Copper Says by Xiao Yu and Li Xiaowei influence the system of copper theft?
More Reading on Systems Thinking
Applied Systems Thinking
Overview of Systems Thinking
Systems Theory
"A system is an entity which maintains its existence
through the mutual interaction of its parts." from "Systems" webpage - quote attributed to Biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy
Monday, March 10, 2008
NSA's Domestic Spying Grows As Agency Sweeps Up Data
NSA's Domestic Spying Grows As Agency Sweeps Up Data Terror Fight Blurs Line Over Domain; Tracking Email By SIOBHAN GORMAN March 10, 2008; Page A1 WALL STREET JOURNAL
Strategy as Strength
In the popular book Now, Discover Your Strengths, by Marcus Buckingham and Donald O. Clifton, one can find a code for a one-time online test to discover one's strengths, according to Gallup-based research. The theory, very simplified here, is that it is better to use one's strengths in the work world rather than to focus on improving one's weaknesses.
One of the "strengths" in the book is "STRATEGIC:"
"Strategic: The Strategic theme enables you to sort through the clutter and find the best route. It is not a skill that can be taught. It is a distinct way of thinking, a special perspective on the world at large. This perspective allows you to see patterns where others simply see complexity. Mindful of these patterns, you play out alternative scenarios, always asking, "What if this happened? Okay, well what if this happened?" This recurring question helps you see around the next corner. There you can evaluate accurately the potential obstacles. Guided by where you see each path leading, you start to make selections. You discard the paths that lead nowhere. You discard the paths that lead straight into resistance. You discard the paths that lead into a fog of confusion. You cull and make selections until you arrive at the chosen path-your strategy. Armed with your strategy, you strike forward. This is your Strategic theme at work: "What if?" Select. Strike."
One of the "strengths" in the book is "STRATEGIC:"
"Strategic: The Strategic theme enables you to sort through the clutter and find the best route. It is not a skill that can be taught. It is a distinct way of thinking, a special perspective on the world at large. This perspective allows you to see patterns where others simply see complexity. Mindful of these patterns, you play out alternative scenarios, always asking, "What if this happened? Okay, well what if this happened?" This recurring question helps you see around the next corner. There you can evaluate accurately the potential obstacles. Guided by where you see each path leading, you start to make selections. You discard the paths that lead nowhere. You discard the paths that lead straight into resistance. You discard the paths that lead into a fog of confusion. You cull and make selections until you arrive at the chosen path-your strategy. Armed with your strategy, you strike forward. This is your Strategic theme at work: "What if?" Select. Strike."
4 Star Level Strategic Thinking
The link at the post title discusses strategic thinking in military leadership, but I propose you put yourself in those shoes as we begin the week talking about how to use strategic thinking to analyze the problem of copper theft. After all, quality analysts directly influence the decisions of leaders and deal with "ill-defined, novel, and complex" work on a daily basis.
The following framework is from the chapter on strategic thinking in the National Defense University's online guide called Strategic Leadership and Decision Making:
* PERSPECTIVE
* CAPACITIES VS KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS
* SELF AWARENESS
* METACOGNITION
* CONCEPTUAL CAPACITY
* EXECUTIVE FLEXIBILITY
* CREATIVE AND CRITICAL THINKING
* RISK TAKING
Perspective, according to this text, requires anticipation. How well do we anticipate copper theft? If we were to create an intellectual framework to understand the future of copper theft, what would that look like?
Knowledge of copper theft and skills to study it, as well as finding ways to address it based on the knowledge of the past, are good - but do we develop the capacity to envision the larger, global problem of copper theft and the effect of markets such as China and India and their demand for copper? Do we solve the problem city by city, or case by case? Do we look at the implication of the problem and have vision about what the problem means for future developments in crimes involving similar metals and other commodities?
Are we aware of ourselves and what might stand in the way of, as well as what might aid, our strategic thinking? "Metacognition is thinking about thinking." Have we ever thought about how we think about copper theft? Have we been unconscious thinkers? Are we curious about knowing how we think and how we know (or don't know)?
Do we have the conceptual capacity to look at the complex multi-system-involved problem of copper theft tactically and over the horizon of a long period of time?
Are we flexible in our thinking? Can we see the problem from the viewpoints of the drug addict thief, the scrap metal dealer, the industries affected, the individuals affected, the systems disrupted, the links to organized crime, the expanding demand of countries, the copper mines, related metal theft?
How are our critical and creative thinking skills? Do we understand our strengths and weaknesses in this area? Do we seek to find others who will complement our abilities so that we may improve and grow from collaboration? Do we ask a variety of others for information and guidance; do we research open source information to learn more about copper theft?
Can you risk doing things in new ways? Will you study this problem of copper theft beyond the defined areas of your responsibility? Do you want to be a strategic thinker?
The following framework is from the chapter on strategic thinking in the National Defense University's online guide called Strategic Leadership and Decision Making:
* PERSPECTIVE
* CAPACITIES VS KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS
* SELF AWARENESS
* METACOGNITION
* CONCEPTUAL CAPACITY
* EXECUTIVE FLEXIBILITY
* CREATIVE AND CRITICAL THINKING
* RISK TAKING
Perspective, according to this text, requires anticipation. How well do we anticipate copper theft? If we were to create an intellectual framework to understand the future of copper theft, what would that look like?
Knowledge of copper theft and skills to study it, as well as finding ways to address it based on the knowledge of the past, are good - but do we develop the capacity to envision the larger, global problem of copper theft and the effect of markets such as China and India and their demand for copper? Do we solve the problem city by city, or case by case? Do we look at the implication of the problem and have vision about what the problem means for future developments in crimes involving similar metals and other commodities?
Are we aware of ourselves and what might stand in the way of, as well as what might aid, our strategic thinking? "Metacognition is thinking about thinking." Have we ever thought about how we think about copper theft? Have we been unconscious thinkers? Are we curious about knowing how we think and how we know (or don't know)?
Do we have the conceptual capacity to look at the complex multi-system-involved problem of copper theft tactically and over the horizon of a long period of time?
Are we flexible in our thinking? Can we see the problem from the viewpoints of the drug addict thief, the scrap metal dealer, the industries affected, the individuals affected, the systems disrupted, the links to organized crime, the expanding demand of countries, the copper mines, related metal theft?
How are our critical and creative thinking skills? Do we understand our strengths and weaknesses in this area? Do we seek to find others who will complement our abilities so that we may improve and grow from collaboration? Do we ask a variety of others for information and guidance; do we research open source information to learn more about copper theft?
Can you risk doing things in new ways? Will you study this problem of copper theft beyond the defined areas of your responsibility? Do you want to be a strategic thinker?
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Detroit SWAT Copper Theft Video
I will be using the subject of COPPER THEFT to illustrate strategic thinking in next week's posts. This video repeats in the middle but gives you a realistic view of one type of crime involved.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Next Week: Strategic Thinking
Strategic thinking requires imagination. I will be posting on strategic thinking next week... meanwhile, here is a training resource for Strategic Intelligence Analysis by Don McDowell, a well-respected leader in this area.
USA - STRATEGIC ANALYSIS & INTELLIGENCE TRAINING
USA - STRATEGIC ANALYSIS & INTELLIGENCE TRAINING
Imagine: Other Ways of Thinking
Explorer Wade Davis on our amazing "ethnosphere"
See:
How to Do Ethnographic Research: A Simplified Guide.
See:
How to Do Ethnographic Research: A Simplified Guide.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
What If We Practiced Interdisciplinarity?
What If we practiced interdisciplinarity in crime and intelligence analysis?
Read the article at the link at the post title and try to adapt its concepts to the complex world of crime and intelligence analysis. We could begin by learning to understand the variety of roles and backgrounds needed for quality crime and intelligence analysis.
Article excerpts:
"Thinking collectively about complex problems requires crossing boundaries both horizontally (across disciplines) and vertically (across experts, policymakers, practitioners,and the public)."
"Doing collective interdisciplinary research, especially projects
stressing the feedbacks between social and environmental
systems, is difficult at the best of times. Yet surely most efforts
fail before they get seriously under way because the participants
from different intellectual communities never recognize
the barriers created by their separate ways of understanding
and approaching problems."
"....participants in interdisciplinary research
projects must overcome various biases and prejudices
that accompany disciplinary training. Contrary to their disciplinary
training, participants need to be self-reflective about
the value judgments embedded in their choice of variables and
models, willing to give respect to and also learn more about
the "other," and able to work with new models and taxonomies
used by others."
"To promote interdisciplinary research at large, individual- and
team-level must be complemented by strategies with major
institution-level changes in curricula, incentives, evaluation
criteria, and accountability. These may not be in the hands of
individuals who seek to do interdisciplinary work; however,
some of these constraints could be eased at the outset of
major interdisciplinary projects (e.g., by getting parent
institutions to agree that the outputs that emerge should not
be weighed by conventional disciplinary or departmental
standards)."
Read the article at the link at the post title and try to adapt its concepts to the complex world of crime and intelligence analysis. We could begin by learning to understand the variety of roles and backgrounds needed for quality crime and intelligence analysis.
Article excerpts:
"Thinking collectively about complex problems requires crossing boundaries both horizontally (across disciplines) and vertically (across experts, policymakers, practitioners,and the public)."
"Doing collective interdisciplinary research, especially projects
stressing the feedbacks between social and environmental
systems, is difficult at the best of times. Yet surely most efforts
fail before they get seriously under way because the participants
from different intellectual communities never recognize
the barriers created by their separate ways of understanding
and approaching problems."
"....participants in interdisciplinary research
projects must overcome various biases and prejudices
that accompany disciplinary training. Contrary to their disciplinary
training, participants need to be self-reflective about
the value judgments embedded in their choice of variables and
models, willing to give respect to and also learn more about
the "other," and able to work with new models and taxonomies
used by others."
"To promote interdisciplinary research at large, individual- and
team-level must be complemented by strategies with major
institution-level changes in curricula, incentives, evaluation
criteria, and accountability. These may not be in the hands of
individuals who seek to do interdisciplinary work; however,
some of these constraints could be eased at the outset of
major interdisciplinary projects (e.g., by getting parent
institutions to agree that the outputs that emerge should not
be weighed by conventional disciplinary or departmental
standards)."
Great Minds on Creativity, Innovation and Imagination (The Great Minds Series)
This looks like a very good resource to complement focused training on imagination in our field.
National Dragnet Is a Click Away: Authorities to Gain Fast and Expansive Access to Records
National Dragnet Is a Click Away
Authorities to Gain Fast and Expansive Access to Records
By Robert O'Harrow Jr. and Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, March 6, 2008; Page A01
Interesting article with reference to intelligence led policing!
Authorities to Gain Fast and Expansive Access to Records
By Robert O'Harrow Jr. and Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, March 6, 2008; Page A01
Interesting article with reference to intelligence led policing!
What If?
What if we adapted scenario planning concepts to crime and intelligence analysis in policing?
Scenario Planning
"Scenario planning or scenario thinking is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
The basic method is that a group of analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces."
Here is a resource for thinking about scenario planning:
Plotting Your Scenarios - An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
"Scenario planning or scenario thinking is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
The basic method is that a group of analysts generate simulation games for policy makers. The games combine known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces."
Here is a resource for thinking about scenario planning:
Plotting Your Scenarios - An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning
What If
What if we adapted the concept of "After Action Reviews" and applied it to evaluating the effectiveness of our policing tactics and strategies?
THE U.S. ARMY’S AFTER ACTION REVIEWS: SEIZING THE CHANCE TO LEARN
"The U.S. Army is one of the few organizations to have institutionalized these reflection and review processes, especially at the group level. After Action Reviews (AARs) are now standard Army procedure. 49 They were introduced in the mid-1970s and were originally designed to capture lessons from the simulated battles of the National Training Centers. The technique diffused slowly—according to the Army’s chief of staff, it was a decade before the process was fully accepted by line officers and embedded in the culture—and only in recent years have AARs become common practice. The turning point was the Gulf War. AARs sprang up spontaneously as small groups of soldiers gathered together, in foxholes or around vehicles in the middle of the desert, to review their most recent missions and identify possible improvements. Haiti marked a further step forward. There, for the first time, AARs were incorporated into all phases of the operation and were used extensively to capture and disseminate critical organizational knowledge.
The technique is relatively straightforward. It bears a striking resemblance to “chalk Talks” in sports, where players and coaches gather around a blackboard shortly after a game to discuss the team’s performance. Both chalk talks and AARs are designed to make learning routine, to create, as one commander put it, “a state of mind where everybody is continuously assessing themselves, their units, and their organizations and asking how they can improve.” In practice, this means that all participants meet immediately after an important activity or event to review their assignments, identify successes and failures, and look for ways to perform better the next time around. The process maybe formal or informal, may involve large or small groups, and may last for minutes, hours, or days. But discussion always revolves around the same four questions:
• What did we set out to do?
• What actually happened?
• Why did it happen?
• What are we going to do next time?"
~~~~~
Do we ever do this in policing except in major cross-jurisdictional or mass murder cases, like the Beltway Sniper situation or the Columbine shootings? Couldn't we do this in every police agency? COMPSTAT bears some resemblance but it was designed to be used by administrative staff rather than line officers. What if we enabled officers to use their street knowledge to learn? What if analysts were part of the after action reviews?
THE U.S. ARMY’S AFTER ACTION REVIEWS: SEIZING THE CHANCE TO LEARN
"The U.S. Army is one of the few organizations to have institutionalized these reflection and review processes, especially at the group level. After Action Reviews (AARs) are now standard Army procedure. 49 They were introduced in the mid-1970s and were originally designed to capture lessons from the simulated battles of the National Training Centers. The technique diffused slowly—according to the Army’s chief of staff, it was a decade before the process was fully accepted by line officers and embedded in the culture—and only in recent years have AARs become common practice. The turning point was the Gulf War. AARs sprang up spontaneously as small groups of soldiers gathered together, in foxholes or around vehicles in the middle of the desert, to review their most recent missions and identify possible improvements. Haiti marked a further step forward. There, for the first time, AARs were incorporated into all phases of the operation and were used extensively to capture and disseminate critical organizational knowledge.
The technique is relatively straightforward. It bears a striking resemblance to “chalk Talks” in sports, where players and coaches gather around a blackboard shortly after a game to discuss the team’s performance. Both chalk talks and AARs are designed to make learning routine, to create, as one commander put it, “a state of mind where everybody is continuously assessing themselves, their units, and their organizations and asking how they can improve.” In practice, this means that all participants meet immediately after an important activity or event to review their assignments, identify successes and failures, and look for ways to perform better the next time around. The process maybe formal or informal, may involve large or small groups, and may last for minutes, hours, or days. But discussion always revolves around the same four questions:
• What did we set out to do?
• What actually happened?
• Why did it happen?
• What are we going to do next time?"
~~~~~
Do we ever do this in policing except in major cross-jurisdictional or mass murder cases, like the Beltway Sniper situation or the Columbine shootings? Couldn't we do this in every police agency? COMPSTAT bears some resemblance but it was designed to be used by administrative staff rather than line officers. What if we enabled officers to use their street knowledge to learn? What if analysts were part of the after action reviews?
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
So What Does All This Imagination Stuff Mean in the Real World of Analysis?
Perhaps imagination and reality don't appear to mix. What does imagination have to do with the work of the crime and intelligence analyst in "the state of things as they actually exist"?
Imagination can allow us to see possibilities in data. Most of the methods we use in policing were "invented" before digitized data became so easily accessed (well, maybe still not in policing) within and outside of the world of policing. Very little is written about the possibilities of using this data in new ways.
I am not referring to the very good evolution of crime mapping (more often in universities than in actual police departments) and its creative use of data. I am suggesting that we look at data and ask such questions as:
What new things can I learn with this information?
What if I can analyze the data rather than store it?
How might I combine this information to produce new insights?
What if I took this data and analyzed it with that data?
What ways can I learn from other disciplines regarding using data in innovative ways?
What if I analyzed drug markets like a marketing expert analyzes retail markets?
What types of things should I be pro-actively searching for in data?
What if I tracked all sex crimes with unknown assailants and combined the information with investigative file information for a thorough, ongoing analysis?
How do I prioritize what I search for?
What if I analyze the wrong things?
What things are most common?
What if common crimes become serial crimes?
What things are most unusual?
What if an unusual crime will lead to more such crimes?
How can we collect better data for sharing?
What if we could share queries rather than data?
Do the collectors know what to collect?
What if I tell the agency what other data I need?
Imagination leads us to "what if" questions.
What if we could collate information on all our most serious chronic offenders and share everything we know in a centralized database - and distribute the information to line-level officers?
What if we took all available data (police, open source, government, health, school, community, business) regarding a chronic crime problem area and created a holistic problem-solving strategy? (When I was a crime analyst, I noted that the hots spots for domestic violence 911 calls were the hot spots for drug-related 911 calls - what if we did something with that information?)
What if we knew many or all organized crime groups had some sort of nexus with ports - could designing strategies that concentrate resources at ports make a difference? Could we decide to study the groups better by having a presence at ports to gather intelligence?
What if? That is where imagination comes in.
What if?
In the next two days I will write more about imagining as a way to improve the work of analysis.
Imagination can allow us to see possibilities in data. Most of the methods we use in policing were "invented" before digitized data became so easily accessed (well, maybe still not in policing) within and outside of the world of policing. Very little is written about the possibilities of using this data in new ways.
I am not referring to the very good evolution of crime mapping (more often in universities than in actual police departments) and its creative use of data. I am suggesting that we look at data and ask such questions as:
What new things can I learn with this information?
What if I can analyze the data rather than store it?
How might I combine this information to produce new insights?
What if I took this data and analyzed it with that data?
What ways can I learn from other disciplines regarding using data in innovative ways?
What if I analyzed drug markets like a marketing expert analyzes retail markets?
What types of things should I be pro-actively searching for in data?
What if I tracked all sex crimes with unknown assailants and combined the information with investigative file information for a thorough, ongoing analysis?
How do I prioritize what I search for?
What if I analyze the wrong things?
What things are most common?
What if common crimes become serial crimes?
What things are most unusual?
What if an unusual crime will lead to more such crimes?
How can we collect better data for sharing?
What if we could share queries rather than data?
Do the collectors know what to collect?
What if I tell the agency what other data I need?
Imagination leads us to "what if" questions.
What if we could collate information on all our most serious chronic offenders and share everything we know in a centralized database - and distribute the information to line-level officers?
What if we took all available data (police, open source, government, health, school, community, business) regarding a chronic crime problem area and created a holistic problem-solving strategy? (When I was a crime analyst, I noted that the hots spots for domestic violence 911 calls were the hot spots for drug-related 911 calls - what if we did something with that information?)
What if we knew many or all organized crime groups had some sort of nexus with ports - could designing strategies that concentrate resources at ports make a difference? Could we decide to study the groups better by having a presence at ports to gather intelligence?
What if? That is where imagination comes in.
What if?
In the next two days I will write more about imagining as a way to improve the work of analysis.
Jung on Active Imagination
The link at the post title will give you food for thought about imagination and its function... not to say it applies to the development of crime and intelligence analysis in policing, but it is a psychological framework you should know about to think more about imagination.
Analysis of Imagination Issue: Academic Paper
Intelligence Failure and Reform: Evaluating the 9/1l Commission Report, by Joshua Rovner and Austin Long, is relevant to the topic of imagination and the role of analysts. It is worth reading.
"There is a significant gap between the Commission’s theory of insufficient imagination and its proposed solutions. It is unlikely that any of the major changes will help generate analytical imagination. The creation of national intelligence centers is a costly enterprise that rests on unrealistic faith in policymakers’ objectivity. The call for a larger and more diverse community of analysts may perversely drive down the quality of its work. And there is no reason to expect that the DCI will be more able to stimulate imagination after he is stripped of his title as principal intelligence advisor.
More sensible proposals in the Commission report are only peripheral to the imagination problem. These include expanding the FBI’s intelligence capabilities and mandating regular DOD and DHS threat and readiness assessments. These plans build upon existing resources and should offer some gain. One recommendation, declassifying the intelligence budget, was both logical and clearly relevant to the theory of failure. Ironically, this was the proposal Congress chose to reject."
"There is a significant gap between the Commission’s theory of insufficient imagination and its proposed solutions. It is unlikely that any of the major changes will help generate analytical imagination. The creation of national intelligence centers is a costly enterprise that rests on unrealistic faith in policymakers’ objectivity. The call for a larger and more diverse community of analysts may perversely drive down the quality of its work. And there is no reason to expect that the DCI will be more able to stimulate imagination after he is stripped of his title as principal intelligence advisor.
More sensible proposals in the Commission report are only peripheral to the imagination problem. These include expanding the FBI’s intelligence capabilities and mandating regular DOD and DHS threat and readiness assessments. These plans build upon existing resources and should offer some gain. One recommendation, declassifying the intelligence budget, was both logical and clearly relevant to the theory of failure. Ironically, this was the proposal Congress chose to reject."
The Ethics of Imagination: The Space Between Your Ears
Click on the post title and read this thought-provoking article!
Empathy & Imagination
"Emotional Intelligence (EI), often measured as an Emotional Intelligence Quotient (EQ), describes an ability, capacity, or skill to perceive, assess, and manage the emotions of one's self, of others, and of groups. It is a relatively new area of psychological research. The definition of EI is constantly changing."
Why would this matter in crime and intelligence analysis? I imagine it matters in many ways!
The most obvious reason to be emotionally intelligent would be to understand criminals and terrorists. The less obvious reason, but as or MORE important, is to understand the needs of decision-makers. Analysts must analyze the decision-makers!
What good is your analysis if your audience doesn't use it? Maybe they don't need what you produce. Maybe they don't understand its value. Maybe you don't understand their values. If you want your work to be relevant, you MUST understand those who will use it. This requires informed imagination.
The more you understand yourself, the more likely you can understand others. Self-awareness and the need to monitor one's thinking is advocated in Richards Hueur's seminal work, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis.
"Not enough training is focused in this direction—that is, inward
toward the analyst’s own thought processes. Training of intelligence analysts generally means instruction in organizational procedures, methodological techniques, or substantive topics. More training time should be devoted to the mental act of thinking or analyzing. It is simply assumed, incorrectly, that analysts know how to analyze." Heuer, page 4
I know of no one stressing training in understanding the decision-makers perspectives and the need for analysts - in truth, absolute necessity - for analysts to know what it is their decision-makers need. It is well-known in the profession that the decision-makers do not know what they need from analysts - analysts must learn how to be emotionally intelligent - using imagination, empathy, and insight to deliver actionable knowledge for their particular "customers." How will you know something is actionable unless you understand the persons who will be the actors?
There is a silly game called "Imagine Iff" that asks players to put themselves in others' shoes - to guess what other people would choose in various circumstances. Perhaps we could imagine a similar sort of "game" that would help analysts learn how to think like decision-makers - since the decision-makers are less likely to be motivated to think like analysts.
Analysts can start from where they are - and look at some simple ways to become more self-aware - then transfer that knowledge to imagining what others may be like - by taking these tests and reflecting on the different ways people think and feel:
VIA Inventory of Signature Strengths -"The VIA Inventory of Strengths is a 240-item self-report questionnaire that is intended for use by adults. It measures the degree to which respondents endorse each of the 24 strengths of character in the VIA Classification. It takes approximately 30 minutes to complete. A report is immediately generated indicating 5 top strengths, a description of each, and a comparison of your scores to others who have taken the test."
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator® - "The purpose of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator® (MBTI) personality inventory is to make the theory of psychological types described by C. G. Jung understandable and useful in people’s lives. The essence of the theory is that much seemingly random variation in the behavior is actually quite orderly and consistent, being due to basic differences in the ways individuals prefer to use their perception and judgment."
Why would this matter in crime and intelligence analysis? I imagine it matters in many ways!
The most obvious reason to be emotionally intelligent would be to understand criminals and terrorists. The less obvious reason, but as or MORE important, is to understand the needs of decision-makers. Analysts must analyze the decision-makers!
What good is your analysis if your audience doesn't use it? Maybe they don't need what you produce. Maybe they don't understand its value. Maybe you don't understand their values. If you want your work to be relevant, you MUST understand those who will use it. This requires informed imagination.
The more you understand yourself, the more likely you can understand others. Self-awareness and the need to monitor one's thinking is advocated in Richards Hueur's seminal work, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis.
"Not enough training is focused in this direction—that is, inward
toward the analyst’s own thought processes. Training of intelligence analysts generally means instruction in organizational procedures, methodological techniques, or substantive topics. More training time should be devoted to the mental act of thinking or analyzing. It is simply assumed, incorrectly, that analysts know how to analyze." Heuer, page 4
I know of no one stressing training in understanding the decision-makers perspectives and the need for analysts - in truth, absolute necessity - for analysts to know what it is their decision-makers need. It is well-known in the profession that the decision-makers do not know what they need from analysts - analysts must learn how to be emotionally intelligent - using imagination, empathy, and insight to deliver actionable knowledge for their particular "customers." How will you know something is actionable unless you understand the persons who will be the actors?
There is a silly game called "Imagine Iff" that asks players to put themselves in others' shoes - to guess what other people would choose in various circumstances. Perhaps we could imagine a similar sort of "game" that would help analysts learn how to think like decision-makers - since the decision-makers are less likely to be motivated to think like analysts.
Analysts can start from where they are - and look at some simple ways to become more self-aware - then transfer that knowledge to imagining what others may be like - by taking these tests and reflecting on the different ways people think and feel:
VIA Inventory of Signature Strengths -"The VIA Inventory of Strengths is a 240-item self-report questionnaire that is intended for use by adults. It measures the degree to which respondents endorse each of the 24 strengths of character in the VIA Classification. It takes approximately 30 minutes to complete. A report is immediately generated indicating 5 top strengths, a description of each, and a comparison of your scores to others who have taken the test."
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator® - "The purpose of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator® (MBTI) personality inventory is to make the theory of psychological types described by C. G. Jung understandable and useful in people’s lives. The essence of the theory is that much seemingly random variation in the behavior is actually quite orderly and consistent, being due to basic differences in the ways individuals prefer to use their perception and judgment."
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Imagination Does Not Equal Creativity
Creativity requires some imagination - conscious and/or unconscious. Imagination requires perception and memory. The concept of imagination is not well-defined. Imagination's ambiguous meaning may account for the difficulty in promoting it in the field of crime and intelligence analysis. One thing I am certain - when we talk about imagination, we are not talking about creating art or inventing in our field. We are talking about a need for the ability to put ideas together to explain what was and is so to better predict what might happen to help us adequately address the present and prepare for the future. The ability to have good, relevant ideas is what we mean by imagination. Imagination means better thinking, and, in the concepts listed in the excerpt below, include concepts numbered one, two, five, and eight.
From: CHAPTER 1 IMAGINATION: THE MISSING MYSTERY OF PHILOSOPHY? by Michael Beaney
"Twelve conceptions of imagination"
"Can we say anything more systematic about the different ways in which we talk of imagination? In a paper entitled ‘Twelve conceptions of imagination’ (2003), Leslie Stevenson distinguishes the following meanings of imagination, which I list here (in italics) as he formulates them, together with my own examples to illustrate each one:
1 The ability to think of something that is not presently perceived, but is, was or will be spatio-temporally real. In this sense I might imagine how my daughter looks as I speak to her on the phone, how she used to look when she was a baby, or how she will look when I give her the present I have bought her.
2 The ability to think of whatever one acknowledges as possible in the spatiotemporal world. In this sense I might imagine how my room will look painted in a different colour.
3 The liability to think of something which the subject believes to be real, but which is not real. Stevenson talks of ‘liability’ rather than ‘ability’ here to indicate that there is some kind of failure in the cognitive process. In this sense I might imagine that there is someone out to get me, or Macbeth imagines that there is a dagger in front of him.
4 The ability to think of things one conceives of as fictional, as opposed to what one believes to be real, or conceives of as possibly real. In this sense I might imagine what the characters in a book are like, or imagine the actors in a film or theatre as the characters they portray, aware that the characters are only fictional.
5 The ability to entertain mental images. Here I might conjure up an image of a large, black spider or a five-sided geometrical figure.
6 The ability to think of (conceive of, or represent) anything at all. Here I might imagine anything from an object before me being transformed in some way to an evil demon systematically deceiving me.
7 The non-rational operations of the mind, that is, those kinds of mental functioning which are explicable in terms of causes rather than reasons. Here I might imagine that smoking is good form since I associate it with the cool behaviour of those I see smoking in films. It may not be rational, but there is a causal explanation in terms of the association of ideas, upon which advertisers rely so much.
8 The ability to form beliefs, on the basis of perception, about public objects in three-dimensional space which can exist unperceived, with spatial parts and temporal duration.Here I might imagine that the whole of something exists when I can only see part of it, or that it continues to exist when I look away.
9 The sensuous component in the appreciation of works of art or objects of natural beauty without classifying them under concepts or thinking of them as practically useful. In looking at a painting or hearing a piece of music, for example, I may be stimulated into imagining all sorts of things without conceptualizing it as a epresentation of anything definite, or seeing it as serving any particular purpose.
10 The ability to create works of art that encourage such sensuous appreciation. In composing a piece of music, the composer too may imagine all sorts of things without conceptualizing it in any definite way in the sense, say, of having a message that they want to get across.
11 The ability to appreciate things that are expressive or revelatory of the meaning of human life. In contemplating a craggy mountain range at dusk, for example, or a painting by Caspar David Friedrich depicting such a scene, I may imagine how much we are subject to the awesome power of the natural world, and yet ourselves have the conceptual and imaginative
power to transcend it all in thought.
12 The ability to create works of art that express something deep about the meaning of human life, as opposed to the products of mere fantasy. Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel, Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Goethe’s Faust, Beethoven’s late string quartets or Wagner’s Ring cycle might all be offered as examples of this final conception of imagination."
For more thinking on this subject, read the article below - which do not necessarily agree with my point in the title of this post:
Concepts and Imagination: Contrary to popular believe, concepts and imagination do not necessarily go hand in hand
What Does Imagination Have to Do with Creativity?
From: CHAPTER 1 IMAGINATION: THE MISSING MYSTERY OF PHILOSOPHY? by Michael Beaney
"Twelve conceptions of imagination"
"Can we say anything more systematic about the different ways in which we talk of imagination? In a paper entitled ‘Twelve conceptions of imagination’ (2003), Leslie Stevenson distinguishes the following meanings of imagination, which I list here (in italics) as he formulates them, together with my own examples to illustrate each one:
1 The ability to think of something that is not presently perceived, but is, was or will be spatio-temporally real. In this sense I might imagine how my daughter looks as I speak to her on the phone, how she used to look when she was a baby, or how she will look when I give her the present I have bought her.
2 The ability to think of whatever one acknowledges as possible in the spatiotemporal world. In this sense I might imagine how my room will look painted in a different colour.
3 The liability to think of something which the subject believes to be real, but which is not real. Stevenson talks of ‘liability’ rather than ‘ability’ here to indicate that there is some kind of failure in the cognitive process. In this sense I might imagine that there is someone out to get me, or Macbeth imagines that there is a dagger in front of him.
4 The ability to think of things one conceives of as fictional, as opposed to what one believes to be real, or conceives of as possibly real. In this sense I might imagine what the characters in a book are like, or imagine the actors in a film or theatre as the characters they portray, aware that the characters are only fictional.
5 The ability to entertain mental images. Here I might conjure up an image of a large, black spider or a five-sided geometrical figure.
6 The ability to think of (conceive of, or represent) anything at all. Here I might imagine anything from an object before me being transformed in some way to an evil demon systematically deceiving me.
7 The non-rational operations of the mind, that is, those kinds of mental functioning which are explicable in terms of causes rather than reasons. Here I might imagine that smoking is good form since I associate it with the cool behaviour of those I see smoking in films. It may not be rational, but there is a causal explanation in terms of the association of ideas, upon which advertisers rely so much.
8 The ability to form beliefs, on the basis of perception, about public objects in three-dimensional space which can exist unperceived, with spatial parts and temporal duration.Here I might imagine that the whole of something exists when I can only see part of it, or that it continues to exist when I look away.
9 The sensuous component in the appreciation of works of art or objects of natural beauty without classifying them under concepts or thinking of them as practically useful. In looking at a painting or hearing a piece of music, for example, I may be stimulated into imagining all sorts of things without conceptualizing it as a epresentation of anything definite, or seeing it as serving any particular purpose.
10 The ability to create works of art that encourage such sensuous appreciation. In composing a piece of music, the composer too may imagine all sorts of things without conceptualizing it in any definite way in the sense, say, of having a message that they want to get across.
11 The ability to appreciate things that are expressive or revelatory of the meaning of human life. In contemplating a craggy mountain range at dusk, for example, or a painting by Caspar David Friedrich depicting such a scene, I may imagine how much we are subject to the awesome power of the natural world, and yet ourselves have the conceptual and imaginative
power to transcend it all in thought.
12 The ability to create works of art that express something deep about the meaning of human life, as opposed to the products of mere fantasy. Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel, Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Goethe’s Faust, Beethoven’s late string quartets or Wagner’s Ring cycle might all be offered as examples of this final conception of imagination."
For more thinking on this subject, read the article below - which do not necessarily agree with my point in the title of this post:
Concepts and Imagination: Contrary to popular believe, concepts and imagination do not necessarily go hand in hand
What Does Imagination Have to Do with Creativity?
Monday, March 3, 2008
Imagine: The willing suspension of belief
This week I promise to get you thinking as well as entertain you. The willing suspension of belief is necessary for analysts if they are to perceive new possibilities. Isn't that what we are looking for? Change? Growth? New ways to be of value?
Meanwhile, until that happens, here is some food for thought via a shareware powerpoint and two youtube videos. While there is no pure imagination nor pixie dust in the world of analysis, what is needed is the belief in the value of imagination and the suspension of belief in the obstacles to applied imagination in the real world.
"Imagination is the ability to form mental images, or the ability to spontaneously generate images within one's own mind. It helps provide meaning to experience and understanding to knowledge; it is a fundamental facility through which people make sense of the world, and it also plays a key role in the learning process. A basic training for imagination is the listening to storytelling (narrative), in which the exactness of the chosen words is the fundamental factor to 'evoke worlds'" -Wikipedia
Meanwhile, until that happens, here is some food for thought via a shareware powerpoint and two youtube videos. While there is no pure imagination nor pixie dust in the world of analysis, what is needed is the belief in the value of imagination and the suspension of belief in the obstacles to applied imagination in the real world.
"Imagination is the ability to form mental images, or the ability to spontaneously generate images within one's own mind. It helps provide meaning to experience and understanding to knowledge; it is a fundamental facility through which people make sense of the world, and it also plays a key role in the learning process. A basic training for imagination is the listening to storytelling (narrative), in which the exactness of the chosen words is the fundamental factor to 'evoke worlds'" -Wikipedia
Homeland Security Intelligence Master's Theses
Here are 24 Master's These on Intelligence published by the US Department of Homeland Security and the Naval Postgraduate School collaborative "The Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense & Security (CHDS)." Check them out! This is a great resource for the field. Click on this link for more information: Master's Degree Programs.
IMAGINATION WEEK: Do schools kill creativity?
You will enjoy the presentation at the post link - I guarantee! While this talk is not directly related to crime and intelligence analysis in policing, it will give you a foundation for the posts for this week. I am not suggesting that you all quit your jobs and become artists - but we need to bring art to crime and intelligence analysis in order to address the failures of imagination that are our greatest risk.
In this talk:
"Sir Ken Robinson makes an entertaining (and profoundly moving) case for creating an education system that nurtures creativity, rather than undermining it. With ample anecdotes and witty asides, Robinson points out the many ways our schools fail to recognize -- much less cultivate -- the talents of many brilliant people. "We are educating people out of their creativity," Robinson says. The universality of his message is evidenced by its rampant popularity online."
In this talk:
"Sir Ken Robinson makes an entertaining (and profoundly moving) case for creating an education system that nurtures creativity, rather than undermining it. With ample anecdotes and witty asides, Robinson points out the many ways our schools fail to recognize -- much less cultivate -- the talents of many brilliant people. "We are educating people out of their creativity," Robinson says. The universality of his message is evidenced by its rampant popularity online."
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Camden police tools woefully inadequate
This article provides a good example on the debate between choosing to invest in officers and equipment or intelligence led policing. This either/or type of thinking is, of course, a logic fallacy.
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