Amid pressure, Rochester police plan 'community action team'
Intelligence led policing in the news...
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Metaphorically Speaking: The Black Swan
Black Swan theory, as developed in the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, uses the black swan as a metaphor for a rare event with an extreme impact that we, as humans, try to explain in terms of predictability after the fact. We do so because we want certainty in an uncertain world.
Crime and intelligence analysis would benefit from employing this metaphor to explore how we react to events without considering outliers using sophisticated critical thinking. Unusual events have significant impact on the growth and trajectory of the field of crime and intelligence analysis. Consider a few examples: a group of men hijacking several planes on September 11, 2001, two teenagers in Columbine acting out their psychological disturbances, and the price of copper rising in China influencing the types and rates of burglaries and larcenies in every city in the United States.
We cannot predict black swans. We know they will occur.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Lessons from the Battle Over D.A.R.E.
Lessons from the Battle Over D.A.R.E.: The Complicated Relationship between Research and Practice
This report from the Center for Court Innovation will be of interest to some crime analysts who help their agencies keep up-to-date with the latest research. Drug Abuse Resistance Education (D.A.R.E) has been a controversial issue and used as an example of how police agencies are unwilling to apply results of research evidence in their practice. Since crime analysis often seeks to apply research evidence to influence decision-makers, perhaps there are lessons to be learned in this study beyond those that apply to D.A.R.E.
"As this paper details, the D.A.R.E. story is more complicated than it appears at first glance. In fact, a strong case can be made that many of the local communities that have chosen to retain D.A.R.E. in the face of scholarly criticism had good reasons for doing so. For many policymakers, the only question that matters when it comes to crime prevention is a simple one: does this program work or not? As the D.A.R.E. story indicates, the reality is almost always more complicated than this. D.A.R.E. is a case study not in black and white verdicts but in shades of grey."
This report from the Center for Court Innovation will be of interest to some crime analysts who help their agencies keep up-to-date with the latest research. Drug Abuse Resistance Education (D.A.R.E) has been a controversial issue and used as an example of how police agencies are unwilling to apply results of research evidence in their practice. Since crime analysis often seeks to apply research evidence to influence decision-makers, perhaps there are lessons to be learned in this study beyond those that apply to D.A.R.E.
"As this paper details, the D.A.R.E. story is more complicated than it appears at first glance. In fact, a strong case can be made that many of the local communities that have chosen to retain D.A.R.E. in the face of scholarly criticism had good reasons for doing so. For many policymakers, the only question that matters when it comes to crime prevention is a simple one: does this program work or not? As the D.A.R.E. story indicates, the reality is almost always more complicated than this. D.A.R.E. is a case study not in black and white verdicts but in shades of grey."
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Drugs, terrorism and shadow banking
Drugs, terrorism and shadow banking highlights "a legal loophole that allows money launderers to get around the requirement that cash or “monetary instruments” (share certificates, travellers’ cheques, money orders etc.) in excess of $10,000 must be declared on entering or leaving the United States." Criminals easily bypass the law because it is "perfectly legal to carry, say, $50,000 embedded in the magnetic stripes of so-called pre-paid stored-value cards."
Razing Expectations: Erecting a Strategic Vision for Fusion Centers
Razing Expectations: Erecting a Strategic Vision for Fusion Centers
~the International Association of Chiefs of Police, Homeland Security Committee
~the International Association of Chiefs of Police, Homeland Security Committee
Friday, March 26, 2010
National Drug Threat Assessment 2010
National Drug Threat Assessment 2010
"This report provides policymakers, law enforcement executives, resource planners, and counterdrug program coordinators with strategic intelligence regarding the threat posed to the United States by the trafficking and abuse of illicit drugs. The assessment highlights strategic trends in the production, transportation, distribution, and abuse of illegal and controlled prescription drugs. It also presents strategic intelligence regarding the operational trends and tendencies of drug trafficking organizations and street gangs that distribute illegal drugs and highlight drug trafficking trends along the Southwest Border."
"This report provides policymakers, law enforcement executives, resource planners, and counterdrug program coordinators with strategic intelligence regarding the threat posed to the United States by the trafficking and abuse of illicit drugs. The assessment highlights strategic trends in the production, transportation, distribution, and abuse of illegal and controlled prescription drugs. It also presents strategic intelligence regarding the operational trends and tendencies of drug trafficking organizations and street gangs that distribute illegal drugs and highlight drug trafficking trends along the Southwest Border."
Metaphorically Speaking: Engineering
"Engineering is the discipline, art and profession of acquiring and applying technical, scientific, and mathematical knowledge to design and implement materials, structures, machines, devices, systems, and processes that safely realize a desired objective or invention." ~Wikipedia
What could the field crime and intelligence analysis learn from engineering? As I listened to the radio last week (not sure what show), there was a discussion about the difference between science and engineering. The speaker stated that scientists observe phenomena in order to create new knowledge, whereas engineers seek to solve problems in the real-world. Maybe we should take a step back from the science approach often used in crime analysis and our social sciences, and think more about taking an engineering mindset to our work.
In fact, that is one of my pet peeves about the discipline of criminal justice. We stress understanding above action. Studying crime and criminal justice systems is not enough. Designing workable systems and new ways to prevent crime in the real world to help people appeals to me much more.
How can we build a better structure to support the work of law enforcement analysts?
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Bank Robbers Online
See http://bandittracker.com/ for wanted bank robber photos and details. The first page will refer to Texas, but if you scroll down to the right you will see other areas of the country that are participating, with federal, state, and local law enforcement agency cooperation, in using this site to help find bank robbers and catch them.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Metaphorically Speaking: Cookbook
Mercyhurst College's Department of Intelligence Studies put together the "Analyst's Cookbook," (later post update - the 2nd edition is now available on Kindle). The description states: "You can think of each chapter as a recipe, if you wish."
If we explore the concept of analysis in policing using "cookbook" as a metaphor, we might achieve a more comprehensive of understanding of analysis itself. One of the obstacles to growth in the field is the misunderstandings that occur between analysts. The local level crime tactical crime analyst, the homeland security analyst, the intelligence analyst supporting investigations and prosecutions, the Compstat analyst - all have different missions.
Many cookbooks are divided into different categories such as appetizers, meats, vegetables, breads , desserts, and beverages. Analysis is divided into different categories depending on the ingredients and the results desired. Just as all the recipes in a specific category of food result in dishes based on the food type, all the work in a specific branch of analysis results in products based on the category of analysis.
While not all recipes involve cooking per se, food preparation recipes are found in a cookbook. The broad category called cooking contains many various activities and outcomes, with producing edible outcomes as the common denominator. Analysis in policing is one broad category, containing many different types of analysis, dependent on the outcomes desired and the ingredients.
A good chef can cook all sorts of foods - some become experts in baking or barbecuing but they know there are others things to cook. A good analyst can analyze in a variety of scenarios - yet many analysts don't know that what they are doing is just one part of a larger process that contains many categories. This fact keeps of fragmented and unaware of our potential. It's time to wake up and smell the coffee!
And maybe cook up something new.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Washington D.C. Police Confront Homeland Security Challenges
Washington D.C. Police Confront Homeland Security Challenges
Thanks to David Jimenez for posting this interesting article link on the International Association of Crime Analysts listserv.
Thanks to David Jimenez for posting this interesting article link on the International Association of Crime Analysts listserv.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
I3C 2009 Internet Crime Report
The Internet Crime Complaint Center (I3C) 2009 Internet Crime Report
"From January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009, the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) Web site received 336,655 complaint submissions. This was a 22.3% increase as compared to 2008 when 275,284 complaints were received. Of the 336,655 complaints submitted to IC3, 146,663 were referred to local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies around the country for further consideration. The vast majority of referred cases contained elements of fraud and involved a financial loss by the complainant. The total dollar loss from all referred cases was $559.7 million with a median dollar loss of $575. This is up from $264.6 million in total reported losses in 2008." Read more....
"From January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009, the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) Web site received 336,655 complaint submissions. This was a 22.3% increase as compared to 2008 when 275,284 complaints were received. Of the 336,655 complaints submitted to IC3, 146,663 were referred to local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies around the country for further consideration. The vast majority of referred cases contained elements of fraud and involved a financial loss by the complainant. The total dollar loss from all referred cases was $559.7 million with a median dollar loss of $575. This is up from $264.6 million in total reported losses in 2008." Read more....
City bureau now has crime data analyst
City bureau now has crime data analyst is a great article about a crime analyst.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Project Folkstone leads to numerous arrests, recovery of illegal weapons and drugs
Project Folkstone leads to numerous arrests, recovery of illegal weapons and drugs
"Using the Intelligence Led Policing (ILP) approach, Project Folkstone focussed on a criminal organization involved in a cross-border gun smuggling operation that specialized in the trafficking of illegal guns in the GTA. The investigation revealed that this criminal organization was illegally smuggling guns into Canada from the U.S. in addition to trafficking various drugs including cocaine, heroin and marihuana."
"Using the Intelligence Led Policing (ILP) approach, Project Folkstone focussed on a criminal organization involved in a cross-border gun smuggling operation that specialized in the trafficking of illegal guns in the GTA. The investigation revealed that this criminal organization was illegally smuggling guns into Canada from the U.S. in addition to trafficking various drugs including cocaine, heroin and marihuana."
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Intelligence Community Virtual Career Fair
Intelligence Community Virtual Career Fair
Register at this link.
"The United States Intelligence Community (IC), an integrated network of agencies that work together to protect our Nation's security, is seeking a culturally diverse, technically savvy workforce for exciting careers in a number of fields. Join us at the IC Virtual Career Fair to explore career opportunities, chat with recruiters, and apply for job openings - all from the comfort of your computer!
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 | 10 a.m. - 8 p.m. ET
The IC Virtual Career Fair will offer hundreds of career opportunities available in a diverse array of disciplines, including:
* Cybersecurity/Information Assurance
* Engineering and Physical Science
* Foreign Languages*
* Information Technology
* Intelligence Analysis
* Law Enforcement
* Many others
Note: The majority of positions are located in the Baltimore/Washington, DC area. Not all opportunities are available at all agencies.
*Proficiency in one of the following languages is highly desirable - Arabic, Dari, Farsi, Mandarin, Pashto, Somali, or Urdu.
At the IC Virtual Career Fair you will be able to:
* Visit virtual booths for Intelligence Community agencies
* Chat with recruiters in real time
* Apply to job openings
* Network with other job seekers
* Watch live presentations
* Download electronic brochures and videos
Best of all there are no travel expenses and suits are not required!
The following Intelligence Community Agencies will be participating in the event:
* Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
* Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)
* Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
* Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
* National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA)
* National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)
* National Security Agency (NSA)
* Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)
* Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)"
Register at this link.
"The United States Intelligence Community (IC), an integrated network of agencies that work together to protect our Nation's security, is seeking a culturally diverse, technically savvy workforce for exciting careers in a number of fields. Join us at the IC Virtual Career Fair to explore career opportunities, chat with recruiters, and apply for job openings - all from the comfort of your computer!
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 | 10 a.m. - 8 p.m. ET
The IC Virtual Career Fair will offer hundreds of career opportunities available in a diverse array of disciplines, including:
* Cybersecurity/Information Assurance
* Engineering and Physical Science
* Foreign Languages*
* Information Technology
* Intelligence Analysis
* Law Enforcement
* Many others
Note: The majority of positions are located in the Baltimore/Washington, DC area. Not all opportunities are available at all agencies.
*Proficiency in one of the following languages is highly desirable - Arabic, Dari, Farsi, Mandarin, Pashto, Somali, or Urdu.
At the IC Virtual Career Fair you will be able to:
* Visit virtual booths for Intelligence Community agencies
* Chat with recruiters in real time
* Apply to job openings
* Network with other job seekers
* Watch live presentations
* Download electronic brochures and videos
Best of all there are no travel expenses and suits are not required!
The following Intelligence Community Agencies will be participating in the event:
* Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
* Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)
* Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
* Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
* National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA)
* National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)
* National Security Agency (NSA)
* Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)
* Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)"
Metaphorically Speaking: Differential Diagnosis
"Common things happen commonly." ~Anonymous
The process of differential diagnosis has some applications to crime and intelligence analysis. Differential diagnosis in medicine often refers to a systematic rather than intuitive approach to diagnosing medical conditions. To begin, the physician considers the most common cause for a problem (a set of one or more symptoms) and will rule that out first, before going on to explore the next likely explanation, as so on, as needed, until a correct diagnosis can be made.
In crime and intelligence analysis we have defined no such systematic process. Here is an example of how we might follow this type of process unconsciously (without naming it):
We see a cluster of robberies on a map and decide could be a series, especially if the crimes occur in a low-robbery area. But we cannot stop there and create a bulletin until we run more "tests" to see if our initial "diagnosis" is correct. We may read the reports to look for similar modus operandi - suspect descriptions, weapons, victims, etc. Suppose we do so and find that the crimes seem unrelated? Often we might then ignore the cluster, since we cannot explain it by the most obvious "diagnosis." However, we may examine the "set of symptoms" further and search for more explanations. What might be the next likely explanation? Knowing your jurisdiction will help you here. Suppose we know that there are a number of bars/taverns in that area? Perhaps are next "diagnosis" would be related to the density of crime risk facilities - those that promote alcohol use. We study further to see if that explains the cluster of robberies. If we rule out that diagnosis - say the robberies are occurring at 10 AM and seem unrelated to those establishments, we then look for another cause. A recent parolee released into the community may be the next "diagnosis." The analysts then searches information to find out if this explanation is the correct "diagnosis." As we move into less obvious explanations, the analytical work often becomes more time-consuming. Intelligence information is needed to make the correct diagnosis - a gang has set up shop in the neighborhood and gang members are committing what seem like random robberies.
Often, such in-depth analysis cannot be done because staffing is insufficient and/or the information available to "diagnose" correctly is unavailable. Thus, a number of crime problems go "undiagnosed" or "misdiagnosed." In "diagnosing" crime problems sufficiently, we need both crime analysis and intelligence analysis information. Sometimes, we need collaboration. Good critical thinking is a necessity. Without a correct "diagnosis," our response to any particular crime problem is obviously less likely to be effective. That said, just like in treating disease, sometimes problems go away by themselves and it doesn't matter what the physician does. Yet we know that some problems, such as an undetected serial killer, like a dangerous virus, are crucial to catch early. Differential diagnosis can save lives.
The process of differential diagnosis has some applications to crime and intelligence analysis. Differential diagnosis in medicine often refers to a systematic rather than intuitive approach to diagnosing medical conditions. To begin, the physician considers the most common cause for a problem (a set of one or more symptoms) and will rule that out first, before going on to explore the next likely explanation, as so on, as needed, until a correct diagnosis can be made.
In crime and intelligence analysis we have defined no such systematic process. Here is an example of how we might follow this type of process unconsciously (without naming it):
We see a cluster of robberies on a map and decide could be a series, especially if the crimes occur in a low-robbery area. But we cannot stop there and create a bulletin until we run more "tests" to see if our initial "diagnosis" is correct. We may read the reports to look for similar modus operandi - suspect descriptions, weapons, victims, etc. Suppose we do so and find that the crimes seem unrelated? Often we might then ignore the cluster, since we cannot explain it by the most obvious "diagnosis." However, we may examine the "set of symptoms" further and search for more explanations. What might be the next likely explanation? Knowing your jurisdiction will help you here. Suppose we know that there are a number of bars/taverns in that area? Perhaps are next "diagnosis" would be related to the density of crime risk facilities - those that promote alcohol use. We study further to see if that explains the cluster of robberies. If we rule out that diagnosis - say the robberies are occurring at 10 AM and seem unrelated to those establishments, we then look for another cause. A recent parolee released into the community may be the next "diagnosis." The analysts then searches information to find out if this explanation is the correct "diagnosis." As we move into less obvious explanations, the analytical work often becomes more time-consuming. Intelligence information is needed to make the correct diagnosis - a gang has set up shop in the neighborhood and gang members are committing what seem like random robberies.
Often, such in-depth analysis cannot be done because staffing is insufficient and/or the information available to "diagnose" correctly is unavailable. Thus, a number of crime problems go "undiagnosed" or "misdiagnosed." In "diagnosing" crime problems sufficiently, we need both crime analysis and intelligence analysis information. Sometimes, we need collaboration. Good critical thinking is a necessity. Without a correct "diagnosis," our response to any particular crime problem is obviously less likely to be effective. That said, just like in treating disease, sometimes problems go away by themselves and it doesn't matter what the physician does. Yet we know that some problems, such as an undetected serial killer, like a dangerous virus, are crucial to catch early. Differential diagnosis can save lives.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Metaphorically Speaking:
"A metaphor is an analogy between two objects or ideas, conveyed by the use of a word instead of another." Crime and intelligence analysis in policing is a relatively new field that can be developed through use of creative and imaginative thinking.
The use of metaphorical thinking, by comparing crime and intelligence analysis to other fields, other ways of working, other disciplines and other concepts, can stimulate innovation and growth.
Currently, we look at analysts' toolboxes - that is using a metaphor to describe analytical tools that are not in a box at all. Another use of metaphor is to examine analysis from a scientific perspective in evidence-based policing. A few individuals have compared the intelligence field to the field of medicine, which is another example of metaphorical thinking.
We use conceptual metaphors without even knowing it in order to communicate new, complex, and/or challenging concepts.
In the book Words Overflown by Stars, creative writing teacher Diane Lefer uses terms in her essay "Breaking the 'Rules' of Story Structure" that could be applied to crime and intelligence analysis.
She begins by suggesting that we "question the tradition story" - in crime and intelligence analysis that means examining and discarding our assumptions. Beyond that, since many have heard that "get rid of your assumptions" repeatedly, questioning the tradition story of policing means changing our paradigm: from catching the "bad guys" to preventing crime, striving for a deeper understanding of crime in order to discover actionable responses, and even (dare we believe?) solutions that we have never imagined before.
She suggests that sometimes writers may look at the inner life rather than the outer actions of their characters.
While analysts cannot go into the heads of criminals, wouldn't good analysis result from understanding the motives and feelings of those we analyze? Describing events without insight into the people involved in those events is the style of some creative writers, but most readers want to know who the characters are, why they do what they do, in order to care about the story. Perhaps we need to understand more about who our victims are, to see them as real people, rather than numbers and reports. What other ways might we make our analysis stories more real? Might we try to understand the readers of our reports and give them something worth reading?
Like writers who discover what they are writing through the act of writing (as Lefer describes some writers), don't analysts discover what they are analyzing through the process of analysis, rather than ahead of time? How much analysis is conducted as an adventure, exploring one route of analysis and then discarding it if the trail grows cold, going off in different directions as new pieces of information emerge unexpectedly? How adventurous are you in your analysis? How much do you trust worn and single trails of process rather than travel new and multiple roads?
Lefer goes on to describe some alternative metaphors for storytelling: mosaics, wheels, and musical improvisation. In the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Richards Heuer writes about the mosaic analogy. Using a wheel to describe crime and intelligence analysis can be correlated to Robert Clark's target-centric approach. The criminal or crime group would be the hub of the wheel, while the spokes would consist of all the agencies gathering information, including the who, what, where, when, why, and how of the target (the criminal or crime group).
Musical improvisation could be likened to crime and intelligence analysis in that good analysis has an underlying structure but must be fluid and flexible to change with new information - yet under control, even when it does not appear to be so. Certainly, the ability to improvise is an essential skill for analysts, but one that is seldom mentioned.
Lefer describes how an effective creative writer changes not just story characters through his or her work, but has the power to change readers. Analysts can have the same power.
In the book Intelligence-Led Policing, Jerry Ratcliffe writes about how important it is for analytical products to provide actionable knowledge to decision-makers - we want decision-makers to change their actions based on our work. Great creative writers impact individual lives by their works. Great analysts change the minds of decision-makers - giving them new knowledge to make informed decisions that save lives.
This blog will be introducing different perspectives in which to view crime and intelligence analysis using metaphorical thinking. Each post in this category will be labeled "Metaphor" so that you can look up previous posts, if you are so inclined. Label categories can be found by scrolling down the left column of this blog. You may also search under "Metaphor" at the top right side of the blog to find the posts. Comments and new ideas are always welcome!
Police crime analyst uses new programs
Police crime analyst uses new programs
New depends on where you live... nevertheless, this article makes some good points.
New depends on where you live... nevertheless, this article makes some good points.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
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