Creation of a National Institute for Analytic Methods by Steven Rieber and Neil Thomason
This is an interesting article suggesting that we don't know what we think we know.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Public Safety Information Sharing
The IJIS Institute , a nonprofit organization that focuses on mission-critical information sharing for justice, public safety, and homeland security, announces the release of the Guide to Information Sharing and Data Interoperability for Local Communication Centers and the Priority Data Exchanges for Local Communication Centers. Both documents are now available at http://www.ijis.org/_programs/public_safety.html.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Freeware Social Network Analysis Tool: NodeXL
Freeware Social Network Analysis Tool: NodeXL
Thanks to a reader for sharing this resource. I don't know anyone using it, but some of you may find it useful. Here is a video on it. Here is a tutorial and discussion.
Thanks to a reader for sharing this resource. I don't know anyone using it, but some of you may find it useful. Here is a video on it. Here is a tutorial and discussion.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Terrorism Early Warning: 10 Years of Achievement on Fighting Terrorism and Crime
Terrorism Early Warning: 10 Years of Achievement on Fighting Terrorism and Crime
This book "brings together academic specialists and law enforcement practitioners to capture the history and share the lessons learned by the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (TEW)."
This book "brings together academic specialists and law enforcement practitioners to capture the history and share the lessons learned by the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group (TEW)."
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Land Use and Facilities That Promote Crime
This morning, at the NIJ Crime Mapping conference, I attended a presentation by Eric S. McCord on "Land Use and Facilities That Promote Crime." To summarize: if we look at types of places that produce crime, especially those that affect the areas beyond the property lines of those places, rather than focus on types of people that commit crime, we may make environmental changes that can reduce and prevent crime.
The places that promote crime:
-retail alcohol outlets
-shopping centers
-high schools
-vacant lots and buildings
-youth hang outs
-neighborhood parks
-budget motels
-red light districts/adult entertainment facilities
-public transit stops and stations
-public housing
Analysts should have map shapefiles of the above locations to study the crime problems in the buffer zones of the locations. These places have routine activities which promote crime in an area - they are criminogenic. Most of the effect occurs in a 1-2 block radius of the locations.
Some of the locations are crime promoters because they attract many people to one place, and thus provide more targets for crime - more purses to snatch, more cars to steal, etc. Some of the locations are problems because they attract those in crime-prone ages - teens. Others locations are problems because they are unsupervised by others. Some locations attract offenders.
Problem solving requires thinking about crime from a variety of angles, developing partnerships with stakeholders, and discovering the things you can change. Changing aspects of location can be much easier than changing aspects of people.
Research Article: INTENSITY VALUE ANALYSIS AND THE CRIMINOGENIC EFFECTS OF LAND USE FEATURES ON LOCAL CRIME PATTERNS by Eric S. McCord and Jerry H. Ratcliffe of Temple University
The places that promote crime:
-retail alcohol outlets
-shopping centers
-high schools
-vacant lots and buildings
-youth hang outs
-neighborhood parks
-budget motels
-red light districts/adult entertainment facilities
-public transit stops and stations
-public housing
Analysts should have map shapefiles of the above locations to study the crime problems in the buffer zones of the locations. These places have routine activities which promote crime in an area - they are criminogenic. Most of the effect occurs in a 1-2 block radius of the locations.
Some of the locations are crime promoters because they attract many people to one place, and thus provide more targets for crime - more purses to snatch, more cars to steal, etc. Some of the locations are problems because they attract those in crime-prone ages - teens. Others locations are problems because they are unsupervised by others. Some locations attract offenders.
Problem solving requires thinking about crime from a variety of angles, developing partnerships with stakeholders, and discovering the things you can change. Changing aspects of location can be much easier than changing aspects of people.
Research Article: INTENSITY VALUE ANALYSIS AND THE CRIMINOGENIC EFFECTS OF LAND USE FEATURES ON LOCAL CRIME PATTERNS by Eric S. McCord and Jerry H. Ratcliffe of Temple University
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety
Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety
I am at the NIJ Crime Mapping Conference in New Orleans for the next few days. Today, I went to a session on Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety and was quite impressed with its possibilities. I consider it a step toward Intelligence Led Policing in disguise. :-) Operational Guidelines will be available on the site in the near future.
The July 2009 Police Chief Magazine article on this topic: Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety
I am at the NIJ Crime Mapping Conference in New Orleans for the next few days. Today, I went to a session on Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety and was quite impressed with its possibilities. I consider it a step toward Intelligence Led Policing in disguise. :-) Operational Guidelines will be available on the site in the near future.
The July 2009 Police Chief Magazine article on this topic: Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety
Second edition of Law Enforcement Intelligence: A Guide for State, Local, and Tribal Law Enforcement
Second edition of Law Enforcement Intelligence: A Guide for State, Local, and Tribal Law Enforcement by David L. Carter, Ph.D., Michigan State University
Monday, August 17, 2009
August Webinars
Analysts' Corner webinars:
The free webinar Intelligence Led Policing for Decision-makers for 8/25 at 3PM ET has 12 openings.
The VERY (:-)) cheap webinar ($25 + $1.61 online ticket fee)Identifying a Crime Series: Beyond Stats and Maps on 8/28 at 3PM ET has 22 openings.
The free webinar Intelligence Led Policing for Decision-makers for 8/25 at 3PM ET has 12 openings.
The VERY (:-)) cheap webinar ($25 + $1.61 online ticket fee)Identifying a Crime Series: Beyond Stats and Maps on 8/28 at 3PM ET has 22 openings.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Analyst will track crimes
Analyst will track crimes
Looks like another decent-paying cross-jurisdictional analyst job is opening up....
Looks like another decent-paying cross-jurisdictional analyst job is opening up....
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Police, sheriffs establishing regional intelligence center
Police, sheriffs establishing regional intelligence center
This article highlights the value of fusion centers in cross-jurisdictional investigations, as well as the concerns of the public regarding civil liberties and fusion centers.
This article highlights the value of fusion centers in cross-jurisdictional investigations, as well as the concerns of the public regarding civil liberties and fusion centers.
Friday, August 14, 2009
The " Business" of Intelligence Led Policing - Part One
Intelligence Led Policing is considered a business model in the United Kingdom, as per their National Intelligence Model, but here in the US we seldom understand policing, or, for that matter, public services, in terms of "business."
Many of those working on policing issues are either civil servants in the trenches (officers and analysts) and/or academics with little knowledge of the business world. Most of us hear the word "business" and think of a profit-seeking entity.
Basically, a business can be described as an organization designed to provide goods and/or services to consumers. The primary aim of Intelligence Led Policing is to deliver the best services possible to our consumers (including you, me and the citizenry), based on the purpose of the organization: policing. The service we provide is increased public safety, rather than fighting crime. Fighting crime without increasing safety means the service didn't work. The business of policing has a history of confused objectives. Confused objectives impede success.
There is no doubt that our consumers want less crime and more safety. This may not mean a huge reduction in crime numbers. It might not mean understanding the root causes of crime. Business research does not have to meet the rigors of academic research. It just has to get the job done. That is a source of great confusion. Real world business does not have to devise studies that prove anything - their focus is outcome. Did we do what we set out to do? Did we find a way to deliver what was needed? Are our customers safer?
Intelligence Led Policing is about policing better, not about debating the causes of crime, not about extensive research, not about tools or technology, and not about politics. Policing is not about justice. It is about public safety. Preventing crime should be its central mission. While we know that there will always be crime and people to arrest, we must keep our focus on the mission and believe that, as the service-providers society has tasked to make our streets safe, we can deliver.
From the National Intelligence Model: "In many cases, it may be about realigning existing resources and procedures to achieve maximum effectiveness rather than the launching of a comprehensive new initiative." Crime and intelligence analysis, at its best, helps police work smarter in the real world rather than the ivory tower.
More in how we can learn from business models in future posts...
Many of those working on policing issues are either civil servants in the trenches (officers and analysts) and/or academics with little knowledge of the business world. Most of us hear the word "business" and think of a profit-seeking entity.
Basically, a business can be described as an organization designed to provide goods and/or services to consumers. The primary aim of Intelligence Led Policing is to deliver the best services possible to our consumers (including you, me and the citizenry), based on the purpose of the organization: policing. The service we provide is increased public safety, rather than fighting crime. Fighting crime without increasing safety means the service didn't work. The business of policing has a history of confused objectives. Confused objectives impede success.
There is no doubt that our consumers want less crime and more safety. This may not mean a huge reduction in crime numbers. It might not mean understanding the root causes of crime. Business research does not have to meet the rigors of academic research. It just has to get the job done. That is a source of great confusion. Real world business does not have to devise studies that prove anything - their focus is outcome. Did we do what we set out to do? Did we find a way to deliver what was needed? Are our customers safer?
Intelligence Led Policing is about policing better, not about debating the causes of crime, not about extensive research, not about tools or technology, and not about politics. Policing is not about justice. It is about public safety. Preventing crime should be its central mission. While we know that there will always be crime and people to arrest, we must keep our focus on the mission and believe that, as the service-providers society has tasked to make our streets safe, we can deliver.
From the National Intelligence Model: "In many cases, it may be about realigning existing resources and procedures to achieve maximum effectiveness rather than the launching of a comprehensive new initiative." Crime and intelligence analysis, at its best, helps police work smarter in the real world rather than the ivory tower.
More in how we can learn from business models in future posts...
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Geert Hofstede™ Cultural Dimensions
Geert Hofstede™ Cultural Dimensions
This site allows you to compare your country with another in five "cultural dimensions." This concept is valuable in examining the cultural issues surrounding terrorism and increasing transnational crime trends. I don't know how reliable it is, but it is an interesting model.
Brief excerpts of the cultural dimensions:
"Power Distance Index (PDI) that is the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions (like the family) accept and expect that power is distributed unequally...."
"Individualism (IDV) on the one side versus its opposite, collectivism, that is the degree to which individuals are integrated into groups..."
"Masculinity (MAS) versus its opposite, femininity, refers to the distribution of roles between the genders which is another fundamental issue for any society to which a range of solutions are found."
"Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) deals with a society's tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity; it ultimately refers to man's search for Truth. It indicates to what extent a culture programs its members to feel either uncomfortable or comfortable in unstructured situations..."
"Long-Term Orientation (LTO) versus short-term orientation: this fifth dimension was found in a study among students in 23 countries around the world, using a questionnaire designed by Chinese scholars..."
This site allows you to compare your country with another in five "cultural dimensions." This concept is valuable in examining the cultural issues surrounding terrorism and increasing transnational crime trends. I don't know how reliable it is, but it is an interesting model.
Brief excerpts of the cultural dimensions:
"Power Distance Index (PDI) that is the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions (like the family) accept and expect that power is distributed unequally...."
"Individualism (IDV) on the one side versus its opposite, collectivism, that is the degree to which individuals are integrated into groups..."
"Masculinity (MAS) versus its opposite, femininity, refers to the distribution of roles between the genders which is another fundamental issue for any society to which a range of solutions are found."
"Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) deals with a society's tolerance for uncertainty and ambiguity; it ultimately refers to man's search for Truth. It indicates to what extent a culture programs its members to feel either uncomfortable or comfortable in unstructured situations..."
"Long-Term Orientation (LTO) versus short-term orientation: this fifth dimension was found in a study among students in 23 countries around the world, using a questionnaire designed by Chinese scholars..."
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Tax defeat puts new Independence police station on hold
Tax defeat puts new Independence police station on hold
While this article may not seem obviously relevant, at its core the emphasis on doing more with less by using "more community-oriented problem-solving and intelligence-led policing" is valuable. It is why crime and intelligence analysis will become more important in the future - to determine more effective use of limited resources.
While this article may not seem obviously relevant, at its core the emphasis on doing more with less by using "more community-oriented problem-solving and intelligence-led policing" is valuable. It is why crime and intelligence analysis will become more important in the future - to determine more effective use of limited resources.
SHARING INTELLIGENCE To Fight Transnational Gangs
SHARING INTELLIGENCE To Fight Transnational Gangs is a 8/11/2009 press release from the FBI describing its new Central American Intelligence Program (CAIP).
Excerpt:
"A joint initiative of the FBI and the State Department, CAIP consists of veteran criminal intelligence analysts from the U.S., El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and Canada who work gang-related matters. Besides intelligence sharing, the objective is to standardize reports and other intelligence products and to minimize the communication gaps between countries—gaps that currently allow gang members to operate across borders."
Excerpt:
"A joint initiative of the FBI and the State Department, CAIP consists of veteran criminal intelligence analysts from the U.S., El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and Canada who work gang-related matters. Besides intelligence sharing, the objective is to standardize reports and other intelligence products and to minimize the communication gaps between countries—gaps that currently allow gang members to operate across borders."
LVCVA OKs $480,285 for Metro intelligence analyst
LVCVA OKs $480,285 for Metro intelligence analyst
Wow - it is a 3-year contract - I want that job! (just kidding, but....)
Wow - it is a 3-year contract - I want that job! (just kidding, but....)
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
2009 State of the Future
2009 State of the Future by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu
Excerpt from the Executive Summary:
"Illicit trade is estimated to be over $1 trillion per year. McAfee puts cybercrime at $105 billion. These figures do not include extortion or organized crime’s part of the $1 trillion in bribes that the World Bank estimates are paid annually or its part of the estimated $1.5–6.5 trillion annually in laundered money. Hence the total income could be well over $2 trillion—about twice all the military budgets in the world. Governments can be understood as a series of decision points, with some people in those points vulnerable to very large bribes. Decisions could be bought and sold like heroin, making democracy an illusion. Organized crime continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counter-strategy. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime says, “The links between drug trafficking and other forms of transnational organized crime call for a more integrated approach to address this nexus.”"
Excerpt from the Executive Summary:
"Illicit trade is estimated to be over $1 trillion per year. McAfee puts cybercrime at $105 billion. These figures do not include extortion or organized crime’s part of the $1 trillion in bribes that the World Bank estimates are paid annually or its part of the estimated $1.5–6.5 trillion annually in laundered money. Hence the total income could be well over $2 trillion—about twice all the military budgets in the world. Governments can be understood as a series of decision points, with some people in those points vulnerable to very large bribes. Decisions could be bought and sold like heroin, making democracy an illusion. Organized crime continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counter-strategy. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime says, “The links between drug trafficking and other forms of transnational organized crime call for a more integrated approach to address this nexus.”"
Monday, August 10, 2009
Analysts' Corner Website
Please check out my new website and services at this link: Analysts' Corner
Future attacks 'may not be prevented'
Future attacks 'may not be prevented' is an article about preventing terrorist attacks in Australia. It raises an interesting point regarding the changing world being addressed by old ways of working, which no longer work so well.
Excerpt:
"What's really needed is a shift from this need to know within the intelligence structure to a need to share and in fact a need to team, to go one step further," Professor Babbage said.
Excerpt:
"What's really needed is a shift from this need to know within the intelligence structure to a need to share and in fact a need to team, to go one step further," Professor Babbage said.
Friday, August 7, 2009
The If Project
Please take time to look at the video for The If Project and donate if you are interested and able. I think it is a great endeavor.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
What’s Wrong with our Intelligence, and How Can We Make It Right?
What’s Wrong with our Intelligence, and How Can We Make It Right?
While this podcast is about national security intelligence, its points on the changing (and much more significant) role of the analyst are very interesting. I think that the concepts discussed here could be applied to crime intelligence analysts as well. Listen and see if you agree.
While this podcast is about national security intelligence, its points on the changing (and much more significant) role of the analyst are very interesting. I think that the concepts discussed here could be applied to crime intelligence analysts as well. Listen and see if you agree.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Organized Crime in the United States: Trends and Issues for Congress
Organized Crime in the United States: Trends and Issues for Congress
by Kristin M. Finklea, Analyst in Domestic Security, May 15, 2009
Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress
by Kristin M. Finklea, Analyst in Domestic Security, May 15, 2009
Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress
Sunday, August 2, 2009
New Zealand Institute of Intelligence Professionals
The New Zealand Institute of Intelligence Professionals
A great development in the world of crime and intelligence in policing!
A great development in the world of crime and intelligence in policing!
RCMP to review unsolved killings
RCMP to review unsolved killings: Female victims focus of investigation
Excerpt:
"Former Vancouver police officer turned serial-killer profiler Kim Rossmo told the Free Press that it wouldn't surprise him if a serial killer was at work in Winnipeg.
"It would be shocking to think that in a city the size of Winnipeg, that you wouldn't have one or more serial killers preying on prostitutes over a 30-year period," Rossmo said."
Excerpt:
"Former Vancouver police officer turned serial-killer profiler Kim Rossmo told the Free Press that it wouldn't surprise him if a serial killer was at work in Winnipeg.
"It would be shocking to think that in a city the size of Winnipeg, that you wouldn't have one or more serial killers preying on prostitutes over a 30-year period," Rossmo said."
Army Looking Into Monitoring of Protest Groups
Army Looking Into Monitoring of Protest Groups
This NY Times article highlights the complexities involved at the nexus of military law enforcement issues and the rights of citizens.
This NY Times article highlights the complexities involved at the nexus of military law enforcement issues and the rights of citizens.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Surprise man's arrest leads authorities to meth-lab
Surprise man's arrest leads authorities to meth-lab
Another mention of crime analysis work in the news...
Another mention of crime analysis work in the news...
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