TSA Announces Evolution of Security Blog

"WASHINGTON, DC -- 01/30/08 -- The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) today announced the launch of an interactive blog, Evolution of Security. This blog will serve as a tool for travelers to share their ideas, thoughts and concerns about aviation security. In turn, TSA will post videos, innovative concepts and other helpful tools while charting feedback. Evolution speaks to the progression of airport security since it was first introduced in the 1970s, then federalized in the wake of 9/11 with the creation of TSA, and now the need to introduce innovations to enhance security and improve process."

This press release ties in with my other post this week regarding citizen participation in intelligence gathering and sharing. While the blog in this link is not specifically for that purpose, it does relate to the topic.

Copper probe nets 140 suspects

Another related article:

South Bay Copper Theft Sting Yields 150 Arrests

Citizens Tracking Crimes

I came across MN Home Invasion Watch today, a blog created by a citizen to track home invasions and share information with other citizens. This is an example of how the future will include new mechanisms for citizen intelligence gathering and sharing. What are the ramifications for crime and intelligence analysis in policing?

Problem Analysis

I was traveling on a train this weekend and learned that my seat mate lived only blocks from me and was involved in community crime prevention efforts. She had been a victim of several crimes herself - including multiple burglaries and a purse snatching in her driveway. She was concerned about making her neighborhood as safe as possible. Since it is a fairly affluent neighborhood close to a relatively poverty-stricken area, this would call for some creative thinking. Problem analysis can help her and the officers who serve her.

In Problem Analysis in Policing, on page 2, problem analysis is described as:

"An approach/method/process conducted within
the police agency in which formal criminal justice
theory, research methods, and comprehensive
data collection and analysis procedures are used
in a systematic way to conduct in-depth
examination of, develop informed responses to,
and evaluate crime and disorder problems."

Quality crime and intelligence analysis are crucial to problem analysis. Because problem analysis is proactive rather than reactive and long-term rather than short-term, it is not well-implemented in our society. Yet it offers the possibility of lasting solutions to crime problems.

Graffiti = Gangs Article

"Most graffiti, or about 80 percent, found around town is the handiwork of taggers, which isn’t gang-related, said Crime Analyst Chris Wilson of the Police Department. That might include numerous hits from taggers around town who write Cynic, Icon, Virus, Chaos or a number of other names or symbols. The city, though, needs permission from landowners before cleaning up any graffiti. Leaving graffiti up sends a message that it’s accepted by the community and paves the way for more vandalism."

U.S. Attorney General Offers Cities Crime-Fighting Money - and Intelligence Led Policing

Click link to read article.

Crime Analyst Job Opening - Fort Worth TX

Click on post title for more information.

Hutton & Myrent's Incident-Based Crime Analysis Manual

This 1999 booklet (click on post title) was produced by the Illinois Criminal Justice Authority and is a nice, free tool for analysts in small local level police agencies. It is clever in showing the analytical thought process. "Using a single fictional scenario over time, this report will provide both beginning and veteran crime analysts with the necessary guidance to conduct all stages of the crime analysis process, from initial community problem identification to final response assessment and evaluation, using basic incident reports and data elements." I found this publication when I was struggling to implement crime analysis in the Buffalo Police Department and was grateful to have a resource to provide to my interns. It can also help students and educators understand the thought processes and techniques used in basic crime analysis tasks at the local level.

Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior

RAND monograph by John Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth McKay, John Boon

This 2004 RAND report (click on post title) was posted on the blog JIOX - Intelligence, Tradecraft and Analysis. While it is geared toward Homeland and National Security, its methodology could be used for crime analysis and intelligence analysis in policing.

Job Opening: Crime Analyst: City of Eau Claire, WI

Metal Theft and Homeland Security

The January 2008 National Crime Prevention Council's online newsletter Catalyst contains an article called"Scrapping the Thieves." This article describes preventative techniques for scrap metal dealers.

While some copper/metal theft likely has ties to organized crime, there is consensus that most of the theft is fueled by drug addiction and drug addicts looking for quick cash.

That said, there are reasons to be concerned beyond the obvious general concern of rise in crime. Blogger Shelley Smith posts "Copper and Metal Thefts Could Weaken Homeland and Domestic Security Infrastructures," on January 17, 2008 in her blog In Homeland Security.

Drug addicts and other thieves are disrupting power services, agriculture, recreational events, home building, transportation services - a whole slew of important systems - and they cannot be stopped by our traditional criminal justice approach. Just like the new terrorists - the culprits are individuals who are only connected by the reasons and ways they commit their crimes. Suicide bombers can be individuals without affiliations to a hierarchal group - they can be individuals who want to join in a cause. For the majority of metal thieves - their reasons are a need for drugs and the existence of places to sell metal to feed their fix.

This is not to suggest that metal thieves and terrorists can be stopped in the same ways. What is clear is that crime (like terrorism) can be affected by global changes - the rising demand for metals from China, India, and other growing economies. Individual crimes (like terrorism) can become global problems and cannot be easily stopped by investigating and arresting the perpetrators. We live in changing times and need to change the way we look at fighting crimes and fighting wars.

The right answers will be new.

Crime Analyst Job Opening in San Diego

FYI. Click on the post title to read.

National Intelligence Model - Analytical Techniques and Products

This resource is from the Home Office. (The Home Office is responsible for policing in England and Wales.) We have nothing similar to this in the United States. While standardization of analytical techniques and products can stifle creativity and critical thinking, it is needed for the profession of analysis in policing to gain respect and credibility. What can analysts do? The answers are nicely summarized in the links below. I will be writing more about each technique and product in the future.

Click on the title of this post to read the following online:

"This is a section of the National Intelligence Model (NIM). The NIM is ‘A Model for Policing’ that ensures that information is fully researched, developed and analysed to provide intelligence that senior managers can use to provide strategic direction, make tactical resourcing decisions about operational policing and manage risk.

Date: Fri Feb 23 10:44:23 GMT 2007

• National Intelligence Model: Results Analysis (188 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Crime Patterns Analysis (162 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Market Profiles (216 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Demographic/Social Trends Analysis (138 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Criminal Business Profiles (171 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Network Analysis (152 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Risk Analysis (163 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Target Profile Analysis (161 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Operational Intelligence Assessment (170 K )
• National Intelligence Model: Links Between the Levels (421 K )
• National Intelligence Model: A Case Study (234 K )
• National Intelligence Model: NCIS Information (80 K )

Adobe provide a free online tool which converts PDF files to text. To use this service visit http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/access_onlinetools.html

To view a document in Adobe PDF format, you may first need to download a free copy of the Adobe Acrobat reader."

UCF Professor Introduces Crime Analysis Mapping Techniques to Russia's Future Police Force

Click on the post title to read an interesting article that begins as follows:

"Russian’s next generation of police officers may be able to track down criminals by neighborhood and perhaps even anticipate where they will hit next, thanks to a University of Central Florida professor."

Global Crime Problem: Copper Theft

How do we analyze a global crime problem? This blog will be discussing how we might better analyze and address the chronic problem of copper and metal theft around the world. Read some articles to get a sense of the crimes of this type in the news - its been going on everyday for years!

Recent examples of articles since just Jan 18 from a Google search:

Legitimate recylers fighting theft of metal
Copper thieves target railroads, traffic lights
Stolen trailer recovered in Oklahoma
Metals precious
Man electrocuted in power transformer
Arrests made in copper theft at Point Pleasant High School
Thieves Steal Copper From Heating Equipment
Copper thieves target Poconos construction sites
The vigilance of employees at AT&T
Copper and robbers
Ex-Argonne Worker Charged In Theft of Experimental Materials
Grate crime wave strikes county
Copper, other metal thefts on the rise across Michigan
Copper theft suspect shot
Misortel lost millions worth of cables
GPL transformer theft
Burglaries solved

Innovation: Safegrowth

Gregory Saville, urban planner and criminologist, presented his 2007 paper Safegrowth: The New Way Forward - Strands that bind neighborhood participation, CPTED, and community development to the Canadian Institute of Planners and the United Nations in Santiago, Chile. Mr. Saville is one of the co-founders of the International CPTED Association.

(CPTED: Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design)

Read the Safegrowth article for details about this innovative process, which has a role for analysts of the future:
"In some neighborhoods it is necessary for crime prevention specialists and crime analysts to provide analytical background to neighbourhood residents before the profile begins. The teaching role of these specialists, whether police officers, security professionals or criminologists, is a new and important public safety service we will need in the future. Specialists can help others understand how to gather and analyse local information. Their success in doing that is a performance measure we can apply to their services."

Standing Group on Organised Crime blog

Interesting blog (click on post title):

"The Standing Group on Organised Crime is one of the
European Consortium for Political Research standing groups.
We aim to promote research in transnational organised
crime across different disciplines, and co-operation and
communication among the scholars and practitioners
internationally through conferences and electronic
communications. We publish in January, May and
September a newsletter."

Technology: CCTVs

An article in yesterday by M. Veera Pandiyan, CCTVs not a quick-fix solution, describes an increase in crime in Malaysia and the issue of proposed CCTVs. The author states, "The Evening Standard reported that comparisons of the number of cameras within sectors in the city (LONDON) against the proportion of crimes solved showed that the cops were no more likely to catch offenders in places with hundreds of cameras than those with hardly any."

Sometimes crime analysts are involved in mapping and analyzing data for the "best" placement of video cameras. Here are some links to research on CCTVs to better inform analysts, educators, and trainers on the pros and cons of video surveillance of public places. This technology will grow and understanding its ramifications is important.

A COPS Office Guide on the topic:
Video Surveillance of Public Places
by Jerry Ratcliffe
A POP Center Library Resource on the topic:
A Review of CCTV valuations: Crime Reduction Effects and Attitudes Toward Its Use
by Coretta Phillips
A Home Office Research Topic:
Crime prevention effects of closed circuit television: a systematic review
by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington
Another Research Study

Policy: Oh Where Oh Where Are New Ideas?

A Dearth of Fresh Ideas - Money & Technology Will Not Save Us: Clear, Original Thinking Will by Michael Tanji January 16, 2008

In the above article, Michael Tanji states "the government’s general approach to any sufficiently challenging problem is to throw money and technology at it, as if what is accounted for in a quantitative sense will overcome very real qualitative problems."

This holds true for analysis in local policing up to the levels of national security. In local policing technology is often mistaken for analysis. Agencies may have nice computerized crime maps and great access to all sorts of data (although not as common as it should be by any means), but very often investment in analysts and analysis is sorely lacking and undervalued.

Expanding on what Tanji writes in his article, we already have tons of data in local level policing - what is missing is vision in how to use it in new ways. (For a look at just some of the data we have available to us in policing, see The Geoarchive Handbook.) Besides new technologies, the way we look at how we work doesn't result in much innovation. Academia looks for new theories of crime but remains abstract and quantitative. We need qualitative answers - things that work in real situations. Why? Because crime occurs in the real, chaotic world and, as any one who has been a victim of a crime knows, we need to prevent actual crimes rather than theoretical crimes. Crime and intelligence analysts can help do that.

Current Events

Governor announces Crime Analysis Center
NYS is opening four Crime Analysis Centers - this one is in Syracuse.

"Interpreting crime statistics is a tricky business, Brian Salsig said. As a crime analyst with the Clark County Sheriff's Office, it's Salsig's business."
This article provides a glimpse into statistics and crime analysis.

Current Events

In the spirit of blogging daily, I will be providing links to news articles of relevant to the development of crime and intelligence analysis in policing. When the links expire, the posts will be deleted. Click on the title to view the article and then come back to the blog!

BBC January 16, 208 article "The web war waged from the bedroom"
The web connects extremists all over the world... implications for homeland security analysts...

Jane's January 15, 2008 article "Intelligence - Teutonic triump"
The proposed establishment of a single national database that would give agencies access to suspects' internet and telecommunications data traffic in Germany....and discussion of sharing of DNA databases across Europe...possible future trend?

Resources: What Information is Needed for What Types of Analysis in Policing

The Illinois Integrated Justice System brief publication, "Incident Based Crime Analysis," has a chart on page two that describes categories of data (meaning information) most useful to crime analysis, intelligence analysis, investigative analysis and operations analysis. This chart, besides briefly defining the types of analysis, helps distinguish the differences between them.

Analysts seeking to explain the types of data they need can use this as a nice summary to support their request for data. The information needed for crime analysis and intelligence analysis is not the same. Readers unfamiliar or new to analysis in policing should find this a good snapshot to help further your understanding of what information is analyzed in policing. Some of the information is significantly different than that analyzed in national security and the military.

Policy: Intelligence Led Policing, Big Brother, Big Sister

Intelligence Led Policing will be the subject of many posts in this blog. Depending on your view of the elephant, ILP means different things to different people. From my perspective as a futurist, an obstacle to the development of ILP, which also impedes the growth crime and intelligence analysis as a profession, seldom discussed but very real is the cultural fear of Big Brother in the United States and elsewhere.

Memes are powerful and George Orwell's meme "Big Brother" has wielded power ever since the book became popular - watch the movie "Enemy of the State" and you will see how this meme informs culture. We fear government knowing things, because "Big Brother" may be watching - the role of the crime and intelligence analyst in policing is in direct opposition to this mental model!

If analysts in policing are knowledge workers, as I believe they are, and people fear government, particularly police, knowing things, we are in for a long, difficult evolution as a field. Someone has to create a new meme that doesn't replace Big Brother, but gives us an alternative archetype, a vision of the possibility of making the world better and safer through the collective use of knowledge. There is a free software (shareware) called Big Sister - I propose we try to make up some sort of image of a being able to use information wisely for the greater good, rather than the Big Brother image of command, control, and conquer - our version of Big Sister. Big Sister helps you and nurtures you - she doesn't beat you up in the playground. Not in this myth....

Techniques: Using "Reality" to Teach and Train

In the Advanced Criminal Intelligence Analysis to Prevent Terrorism training I have helped conduct as a contractor for the National White Collar Crime Center, the case of the Beltway Snipers was used as a training tool. I had thought of using the document "Managing a Multijurisdictional Case: Identifying the Lessons Learned from the Sniper Case " before going to help with the course - they beat me to it.

Nevertheless, using information available on real cases or studies that are available online can be useful as an instructor. This is similar to using scenarios, and limited by what is available to you in the written resources, but this approach is quite valuable and interesting to students. To teach profiling concepts in my Crime and Intelligence Analysis online course for Empire State College's Center for Distance Learning , I use a document, which has a section on profiling, called The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes and Terrorist and Why?

It would be great of other analysts/instructors could share such resources on this blog. Any ideas?

Resources: Geographic Profiling

I found a video online (click on the word "video") in which Dr. Kim Rossmo explains geographic profiling and the Zodiac Killer cases. I don't know how long the link will last but it is a nice resource for students and analysts.

Geographic profiling is somewhat controversial in the field of crime and intelligence analysis.

Associations: For Working Analysts

I belong to both the International Association of Crime Analysts (IACA)and The International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis (IALEIA). I recommend that anyone interested in the development of analysis in policing join these associations to get a full flavor of what analysis is to the two quite different groups.

The IACA is focused on analysis in local law enforcement, while IALEIA is focused on analysis at the state and federal levels, and these are different missions requiring different specialties. Both should be working together to get a holistic, comprehensive understanding of crime problems, but the significant fragmentation of policing in the United States has clouded that horizon of possibility.

Welcome

This blog is a resource for analysts and students and will be an educational tool for those teaching, training, and practicing law enforcement analysis. Enjoy!

CISC 2008 Report on Organized Crime

Criminal Intelligence Service Canada 2008 Report on Organized Crime is available to the public and is based on research concluded 5/21/08.

Excerpt:
"The Canadian criminal intelligence community identified approximately 900
organized crime groups in 2008, consistent with 2007 findings. These groups were found to operate in all communities, from major urban centres to rural areas."